Russia is prepared to redirect oil supplies to India to help counter disruptions from the Middle East, according to an industry source cited by Reuters. Around 9.5 million barrels of Russian crude are currently on vessels near Indian waters and could reach refineries within weeks.
The source did not specify the original destinations of the cargoes but said they could be rerouted quickly, offering short-term relief to Indian refiners.
India faces vulnerability to supply shocks, with crude reserves covering only about 25 days of demand. Inventories of refined fuels such as gasoil, petrol and liquefied petroleum gas are also limited. A government source said New Delhi has begun exploring alternative supplies in anticipation of prolonged instability in the Middle East.
Strait of Hormuz disruption
Nearly 40% of India’s crude imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil transit route. Recent attacks on vessels in the area, following US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, have made the passage largely inaccessible, forcing India — the world’s third-largest oil consumer — to look for other sources.
India’s refiners process roughly 5.6 million barrels per day. The industry source said Russia could potentially meet up to 40% of India’s crude requirements if needed.
Russian oil share fluctuates
India’s imports of Russian crude had dropped to about 1.1 million barrels per day in January, the lowest level since November 2022, amid US tariff pressure. This reduced Moscow’s share of India’s total oil imports to 21.2%. However, the share reportedly rebounded to around 30% in February.
Refiners are in regular contact with traders handling Russian crude, but any significant increase in purchases would depend on government direction, particularly as trade discussions with the United States continue. President Donald Trump recently said he would remove punitive tariffs on Indian imports after stating that New Delhi had agreed to stop buying Russian oil. India, however, has maintained that it aims to diversify supply based on market conditions and shifting global dynamics.
Energy market impact
Since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russian oil has generally been sold at discounted rates. However, the current supply crunch may narrow those discounts, with one source describing the situation as a “seller’s market.”
Russia has also indicated readiness to supply liquefied natural gas to India after Qatar, a major supplier, halted production amid the widening conflict. Indian firms have reportedly reduced gas deliveries to some industrial consumers to manage shortages.
While both India and China rely heavily on Middle Eastern oil, India maintains smaller reserves and is therefore more exposed to regional disruptions. Meanwhile, Trump has suggested that the US Navy could escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if required and directed the US International Development Finance Corporation to provide political risk insurance and guarantees for Gulf shipping.
