The groundwork for Saturday’s operations in Iran was laid in late December when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago. At the time, anti-regime protests had just begun in Iran, and their scale was still uncertain. Netanyahu discussed plans for a follow-up to the previous year’s joint strikes, which had largely targeted Iran’s ballistic missile programme, with a tentative timeline around May.
Soon after, the situation shifted dramatically. The Iranian regime launched a severe crackdown on protesters, reportedly killing thousands. Trump responded publicly, urging demonstrators to seize government institutions and posting that help was on the way.
By January 14, Trump was close to authorising strikes but ultimately held back. Instead, he ordered a significant US military buildup in the Middle East and quietly began coordinating a joint operation with Israel. In the following weeks, senior Israeli officials, including the Mossad director, the military intelligence chief and the IDF chief of staff, travelled to Washington to coordinate what would later be known as Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion.
At the same time, Trump explored whether the threat of military force could secure a deal with Iran on US terms. In early February, US and Iranian officials met in Oman for their first talks since the previous year’s 12-day war. Shortly afterward, Netanyahu rushed to Washington to clarify US red lines and discuss whether a joint strike would proceed if negotiations collapsed.
Although Trump’s envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff were doubtful about the prospects of a deal, officials insisted the talks were initially genuine. Iran was warned that strikes would follow quickly if there was no real progress toward an agreement.
A week before a planned Geneva meeting, US and Israeli officials identified a possible window for an attack — the upcoming Saturday, when Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was scheduled to meet senior aides at his compound. A key concern was ensuring he did not suspect anything and retreat to a secure underground bunker. Despite media speculation about a possible assassination, Khamenei reportedly did not alter his routine.
When Kushner and Witkoff travelled to Geneva, they were already pessimistic but proceeded with the meeting to maintain the appearance of diplomacy. During the talks, they concluded that Iran’s proposals fell far short of US expectations. After initial sessions, they informed Vice President JD Vance that the gaps remained wide, and a second round of discussions made no progress.
US officials later said there were three main sticking points. First, Iran refused to abandon uranium enrichment despite a US offer of indefinite free nuclear fuel for civilian use. Second, Tehran declined to discuss its ballistic missile programme. Third, it would not address funding for regional militant groups.
Officials also claimed intelligence indicated Iran was rebuilding nuclear facilities previously targeted and stockpiling enriched material under the cover of medical research. When Iran presented a seven-page document outlining its enrichment needs, US officials said the proposed capacity would far exceed limits set under the 2015 nuclear agreement.
After the Geneva talks, Oman’s foreign minister reportedly made a last effort in Washington to delay military action, meeting Vice President Vance. However, Trump had already decided to proceed.
On Saturday morning, as anticipated by US and Israeli planners, Khamenei convened his advisers. At the same time, two other meetings of Iranian security and intelligence officials were being held above ground in Tehran. Minutes later, all three locations were struck simultaneously.
According to an Israeli intelligence official, Iran misjudged Trump’s willingness to act, believing he would not move forward with military action.
