According to Bloomberg, state oil giant Saudi Aramco is likely to ship around 40 million barrels of crude to China in April, down from about 48 million barrels in February. Supplies to India are also projected to fall to roughly 23 million barrels, compared to 25–28 million barrels in recent months, based on data from Kpler Ltd and Vortexa Ltd.
Strait of Hormuz disruption
The decline is largely tied to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil transport. The ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has led to near-total disruption of traffic through this chokepoint, affecting the steady flow of crude to major markets.
Iran’s attacks on regional energy infrastructure have further increased supply risks, contributing to rising global oil prices. Lower shipments from Saudi Arabia could force importing nations to seek alternative sources and absorb higher costs.
Rerouting via Red Sea
To manage the situation, Saudi Aramco has begun redirecting some supplies through a pipeline across the Arabian Peninsula to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. However, this workaround is limited, as Yanbu’s export capacity is about 5 million barrels per day—significantly lower than the 7.2 million barrels previously shipped via Persian Gulf routes.
Additionally, only Arab Light crude is being supplied through this route, which may not suit all refining requirements.
Impact beyond Asia
The disruption is also affecting Europe, where some refiners have reported reduced or even zero allocations for April. Saudi Arabia had earlier allowed long-term clients to shift deliveries to Yanbu, a provision now being used amid the crisis.
The situation remains uncertain, with future supply stability heavily dependent on how developments unfold around the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy trade.
