Over the past three decades, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia cultivated a reputation for stability in a turbulent Middle East. That perception shifted after Iranian missiles and drones struck not only US military bases in the Gulf but also civilian and commercial locations in Dubai and Abu Dhabi.
Despite attacks on industrial and residential sites, most Arab governments have so far refrained from retaliating against Iran. The restraint has prompted debate over whether it is a strategic calculation or influenced by religious considerations.
Iran’s missile and drone launches targeting Israel, US bases, and Arab states followed the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in coordinated US–Israeli airstrikes. Beyond being Iran’s head of state, Khamenei was regarded by many as a leading figure in the global Shia Muslim community.
Arab nations now face a complex decision. Retaliating against Iran, a Muslim-majority country, could be viewed as acting against the broader Muslim Ummah and aligning with Israel, particularly in the aftermath of Khamenei’s assassination.
Three days into the conflict, only one significant military warning has emerged publicly: reports indicate that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman authorised the Royal Saudi Armed Forces to respond if Iranian attacks continue. Nevertheless, Riyadh has remained cautious despite its longstanding rivalry with Tehran and reported damage to facilities such as the Aramco refinery.
A report by The Washington Post said that on the day of Khamenei’s killing, Mohammed bin Salman and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had urged US President Donald Trump to proceed with strikes on Iran. Publicly, however, Saudi Arabia has called for a diplomatic resolution.
The idea of the Muslim Ummah — the global community of Muslims rooted in Quranic teaching — is often invoked during periods of external threat. Although the Sunni-Shia divide has historically shaped regional politics, there have been moments when it was set aside. When Ruhollah Khomeini, founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran, died in 1989, Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein offered condolences despite the recent Iran–Iraq War. Syria under President Hafez al-Assad declared seven days of mourning, and Lebanon also observed a period of mourning.
At times, shared opposition to Israel has also bridged sectarian divisions. The signing of the Abraham Accords by the UAE and Bahrain marked a shift toward normalisation with Israel. However, after the October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas and the ensuing Gaza war, Saudi Arabia postponed its own anticipated agreement.
In the current crisis, Iran’s strikes on Gulf states were linked to the presence of US military bases. The UAE, for instance, hosts Al Dhafra Air Base near Abu Dhabi, a key US military facility. After the attacks, a joint statement by the US and several Arab states condemned Iran’s missile and drone launches as reckless and a violation of sovereignty. The Gulf Cooperation Council also denounced the strikes and affirmed the right to self-defence.
Even so, these Sunni-majority states were not active participants in the US–Israeli operation. Several, including Jordan and Saudi Arabia, denied that their airspace had been used for strikes on Iran and emphasised support for diplomacy.
Although Saudi Arabia and Iran have competed for influence across the region for decades, Riyadh has not retaliated despite reported drone strikes on its oil infrastructure. There have also been no official expressions of solidarity with Iran over Khamenei’s death from Arab leaders, unlike condemnations issued by Russia and China of the US–Israeli action.
Iran has warned that any attack by Arab states would trigger direct retaliation, including potential strikes on royal palaces. Such threats, combined with the risk of being perceived as siding with the US and Israel, may be contributing factors in the Gulf’s cautious approach.
Tehran has long portrayed itself as a defender of Muslim causes against Western powers. Any military action by Arab governments could allow Iran to frame the response as alignment with Western interests. Following Khamenei’s death, the red flag — symbolising martyrdom in Shia Islam — was raised at the Jamkaran Mosque in Qom, reinforcing the narrative of sacrifice promoted by the Iranian leadership.
For now, despite absorbing attacks and issuing strong condemnations, Arab states have opted for restraint, shaped by strategic calculations, regional risks, and the broader religious and political implications of direct confrontation with Iran.
