A Pakistan-backed diplomatic push is attempting to broker a temporary halt in the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, but deep divisions continue to threaten the chances of success.
The proposal—often referred to as the “Islamabad Accord”—centres on a two-phase framework. The first stage calls for a 45-day ceasefire intended to immediately pause hostilities, while the second stage would focus on negotiating a comprehensive and permanent settlement to end the war. The initiative is being facilitated through coordinated backchannel efforts led by Asim Munir, who has been in contact with key figures, including JD Vance and Abbas Araghchi.
Despite these efforts, prospects for a near-term breakthrough remain weak. Officials involved in the talks suggest that reaching even a limited agreement within the next 48 hours is unlikely, though negotiations are continuing in what is being viewed as a final attempt to prevent a major escalation.
A central obstacle remains Iran’s refusal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz during a temporary ceasefire. Tehran has made it clear that such concessions—along with decisions on its enriched uranium stockpile—will only be considered as part of a permanent agreement, not an interim arrangement. Iranian officials have also expressed distrust, citing past ceasefires in other conflicts that failed to hold.
This position directly conflicts with the stance of Donald Trump, who has tied de-escalation to the reopening of the Strait and issued explicit warnings of large-scale strikes if Iran does not comply within the given deadline. His statements have included threats to target Iran’s energy and industrial infrastructure.
The risks of failure are significant. Mediators have warned that any fresh US-Israeli strikes on Iranian territory—particularly on energy facilities—could trigger severe retaliation. Potential targets could include oil installations and desalination plants across Gulf countries, raising the possibility of a broader regional crisis with far-reaching economic and humanitarian consequences.
Additional diplomatic channels involving countries like Egypt and Turkey are also active, but no proposal has yet been accepted by Tehran. Iran has reportedly declined to engage in direct talks on Pakistani soil, further complicating mediation efforts.
Overall, while the ceasefire framework offers a structured path toward de-escalation, unresolved core issues—especially control over the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear concerns—continue to block progress. The situation now hinges on whether diplomacy can produce a compromise before escalating military actions close the window for negotiation entirely.
