India’s southwest monsoon is expected to remain weak in July, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting below-normal rainfall across much of the country as El Niño conditions continue to intensify over the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
In its monthly outlook released on Tuesday, the IMD stated that rainfall during July 2026 is likely to remain below normal, with precipitation projected to be less than 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA). Based on data from 1971 to 2020, the average rainfall for July stands at 280.4 mm.
The forecast follows an exceptionally dry June, with India recording rainfall that was 39% below normal. June 2026 has consequently become the fifth-driest June since records began in 1901.
According to the IMD’s probabilistic forecast, most regions of the country—including large parts of central, western, and northern India—are likely to receive below-normal rainfall. However, certain areas are expected to fare better despite the overall deficit.
The weather agency indicated that portions of northwest India, east-central India, and the eastern peninsular region could receive normal to above-normal rainfall, providing some relief after a slow start to the monsoon season. Northeast India is also expected to experience comparatively higher rainfall than most other regions.
Meteorologists attribute the subdued outlook largely to the development of El Niño, a climate phenomenon characterised by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. El Niño tends to weaken India’s monsoon circulation by reducing the temperature difference between land and sea, which can suppress cloud formation and rainfall across the subcontinent.
Although El Niño does not always lead to drought conditions, stronger episodes have historically been linked to weaker monsoons and extended dry periods in India.
The delayed progress of the southwest monsoon has already affected agricultural activity. Government figures released last week showed that kharif crop sowing is down by nearly 23% compared with the same period last year. Key crops including rice, pulses, soybean, and cotton have recorded significant declines in acreage due to insufficient soil moisture.
Despite the weak outlook for July, the IMD expects rainfall activity to pick up in the coming days as new low-pressure systems form over the Bay of Bengal and the monsoon trough shifts southward. These developments could bring widespread rainfall to parts of central and northern India.
Meanwhile, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has suggested that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may emerge during the latter half of the monsoon season, typically between August and September. Such a development could help strengthen monsoon activity and partially offset the impact of El Niño.
However, weather experts caution that while individual weather systems may provide temporary improvement, sustained recovery will remain challenging if El Niño continues to strengthen through the remainder of the season.
As July contributes a substantial share of India’s annual monsoon rainfall, its performance will play a critical role in determining agricultural output, reservoir levels, water availability, and the broader health of the economy in the months ahead.
