Iran is reportedly trying to rebuild crude oil sales to major Asian buyers, including India, after the United States issued a 60-day sanctions waiver that could temporarily allow limited exports beyond its main customer, China. According to Bloomberg, Iranian officials, traders, and representatives of the National Iranian Oil Company have begun contacting refiners in India, Japan, South Korea, and other Asian markets even before the waiver was formally announced, indicating Tehran’s urgency to restart trade and reduce large crude inventories.
A key driver of this push is the volume of Iranian oil currently stored at sea. Data cited from Vortexa suggests that about 68 million barrels of Iranian crude and condensate were on tankers as of June 22, with more than 80% of these cargoes reportedly without confirmed destinations. Many of these shipments are already in or near Asian waters, which makes rapid delivery to nearby markets like India logistically feasible.
However, Indian refiners appear cautious. India was once a major buyer of Iranian oil before US sanctions forced it to stop imports. Despite the new waiver, refiners are reportedly not in a hurry to resume purchases, as they have already secured alternative crude supplies through at least August. This reduces immediate dependency on Iranian barrels.
Asian buyers more broadly are also wary of re-entering the Iranian market. One concern is the unpredictability of US sanctions policy, which has changed repeatedly in recent years. Even if temporary relief is in place, buyers fear that contracts could again become restricted. Additionally, existing European and British sanctions, along with complications in shipping, insurance, and financing, continue to make Iranian crude difficult to trade. Many shipping and port operators also remain reluctant to handle vessels linked to previously sanctioned “dark fleet” operations.
Despite this, geography offers Iran some advantage. Some cargoes could reach Indian ports within two to three days, making India a convenient destination for clearing excess crude. This proximity could also give Indian refiners negotiating leverage in terms of price discounts, given Tehran’s urgency to sell.
Still, market conditions may limit immediate demand. Benchmark Middle Eastern crude grades such as Dubai and Murban are currently in a contango structure, indicating adequate supply in Asia and reducing the incentive for urgent spot purchases.
Analysts suggest that any revival in Iran’s oil exports would likely occur in phases. China is expected to remain the dominant buyer, while India could re-emerge later if sanctions relief proves stable and commercial conditions become attractive. Other countries such as Turkey, South Korea, Japan, and European buyers may follow only if legal and financial barriers ease further.
Overall, while Iran is actively seeking to re-enter Asian oil markets and India is geographically well positioned to receive shipments quickly, Indian refiners are currently cautious and appear more likely to wait for clearer and more stable policy conditions before resuming significant purchases.
