Despite the southwest monsoon officially covering most parts of India, large regions of the country continue to experience unusually clear skies, with recent satellite imagery showing a notable lack of widespread rain-bearing cloud cover across central, western, and northwestern India.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the slow progress of the monsoon has resulted in a rainfall deficit of approximately 45% between June 4 and June 26.
Infrared images captured by the INSAT-3DR satellite on Thursday morning reveal an uncommon weather pattern for late June. While thick cloud formations are visible over the northeastern states, the northern Bay of Bengal, and parts of southern India, extensive areas covering Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and the Delhi-NCR region remain largely free of the deep convective clouds typically associated with an active monsoon phase.
Rainfall data aligns closely with these satellite observations. IMD’s state-wise rainfall analysis indicates significant deficiencies across much of central and northern India. Madhya Pradesh has received only about half of its normal rainfall during the period, while Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Odisha, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala have also recorded substantial shortfalls.
Gujarat has emerged as one of the worst-affected states, with rainfall levels nearly 84% below the seasonal average.
Weather experts attribute the lack of cloud activity to the absence of strong monsoon systems over both the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. Without the formation and inland movement of low-pressure systems, moisture transport into the interior regions of the country has remained weak, limiting the development of widespread rainfall.
However, meteorologists believe conditions may soon begin to improve.
Forecast models indicate that a large tropical weather disturbance is currently developing over the eastern Indian Ocean, north of the equator. This system is expected to gradually move northward into the Bay of Bengal over the next four to seven days.
As it strengthens, the disturbance is likely to inject significant amounts of tropical moisture into the monsoon circulation, creating favourable conditions for a renewed phase of rainfall activity.
The enhanced moisture supply could also support the formation of a fresh low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal, a key feature that often helps revive monsoon conditions across large parts of India.
At the same time, atmospheric forecasts suggest the possible development of a middle-tropospheric vortex (MTV) over western India. Such systems are frequently linked to increased rainfall over Maharashtra, Gujarat, and neighbouring regions during the monsoon season.
If both weather systems evolve as currently projected, they could help revive the stalled monsoon and accelerate its progression into the remaining parts of northwestern India during the first week of July.
Nevertheless, meteorologists caution that the exact timing, track, and intensity of the monsoon revival will depend on how the developing tropical disturbance behaves over the coming days.
For now, while the monsoon remains active in some parts of the country, much of central and northern India continues to wait for the widespread cloud cover and rainfall that typically characterise this stage of the season.
