After several weeks of an inconsistent monsoon, the influence of El Niño is becoming more pronounced across India, with meteorologists warning that the country is entering another dry phase as the atmospheric systems that typically drive widespread rainfall have temporarily weakened.
The southwest monsoon has already entered a break phase, and rainfall is expected to remain below normal across large parts of central, western and northwestern India over the next three to four days.
According to weather experts, the current dry spell is being intensified by the growing impact of El Niño, which is suppressing the development of rain-bearing weather systems over the Indian region.
At present, the atmosphere lacks the necessary conditions to support widespread rainfall. Three key weather drivers—the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO) and Low Pressure Systems (LPS) over the Bay of Bengal—are currently absent.
These atmospheric features normally act as the backbone of the southwest monsoon by promoting cloud formation, organising thunderstorms and generating low-pressure systems that transport moisture deep into the Indian subcontinent.
In their absence, the monsoon loses momentum, resulting in prolonged dry conditions across several parts of the country.
The current pattern also coincides with the strengthening influence of El Niño, a recurring warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean that disrupts global atmospheric circulation.
For India, El Niño typically weakens the southwest monsoon by reducing moisture transport and limiting cloud formation over the subcontinent.
As a result, significant rainfall is expected to remain confined to isolated regions, particularly parts of Northeast India and the Himalayan foothills, while much of the country continues to await the development of fresh weather systems.
However, meteorologists remain cautiously optimistic about conditions improving during the latter half of July.
Forecast models suggest that the Madden-Julian Oscillation, Rossby waves and new Low Pressure Systems are likely to become active over the Bay of Bengal during the final seven to ten days of the month.
If these systems develop as expected, they could reinvigorate the monsoon circulation, generating fresh rain-bearing systems that move inland across eastern, central and northern India.
Weather experts say the return of these large-scale atmospheric oscillations could partially counter the suppressing effects of El Niño, allowing rainfall activity to recover towards the end of July.
For the time being, however, El Niño is beginning to exert a stronger influence over India's weather. With the monsoon currently lacking crucial atmospheric support, much of the country is expected to experience another spell of below-normal rainfall before conditions are likely to improve later this month.
