India's southwest monsoon is expected to strengthen further in the first half of August, offering hope of a strong turnaround after several weeks of patchy rainfall across the country.
According to the latest data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the all-India monsoon rainfall deficit has reduced to 14%, marking a significant improvement from the larger shortfalls seen earlier in the season.
Weather experts attribute the revival to the strongest monsoon system of the season so far—a deep depression currently moving across Maharashtra.
Situated within the monsoon trough, the deep depression has pulled vast amounts of moisture from both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal.
Its impact has been reinforced by the Somali Jet, a powerful low-level wind current that carries moisture from the Arabian Sea into the Indian subcontinent.
The combined influence of the deep depression, an active monsoon trough and the intensified Somali Jet has created favourable conditions for widespread and heavy rainfall across central and western India. Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and neighbouring areas have already received intense rainfall, and the system is expected to continue moving westward over the next few days.
IMD rainfall data indicates that Central and Northwest India are now receiving near-normal seasonal rainfall, while the South Peninsula and East and Northeast India continue to record below-normal precipitation.
Several states, including Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, have witnessed a notable improvement in rainfall during the past week.
Forecasters believe the recovery will continue into early August, with fresh low-pressure systems likely to form over the Bay of Bengal. These systems are expected to keep the monsoon active and bring widespread rainfall across central, western and parts of northern India.
If the current pattern continues, the national rainfall deficit could shrink further in the coming weeks, improving reservoir levels, supporting kharif crop growth and easing concerns over agricultural output.
As the monsoon enters one of its most active phases this season, meteorologists say the next two weeks will play a key role in determining whether India can make up much of the rainfall deficit accumulated during June and early July.
