After several days of intense rainfall that inundated roads and provided much-needed relief to drought-hit agricultural regions, India's southwest monsoon is expected to enter a temporary pause.
Meteorologists say a dry spell is likely to affect large parts of the country over the coming days, bringing clear skies, rising humidity and uncomfortable heat to many regions.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the country has experienced nine consecutive days of above-normal rainfall. The wet spell significantly improved the seasonal rainfall situation after India recorded its fifth-driest June in 126 years.
RECENT SPELL OF HEAVY RAINFALL
Following a relatively dry June, rainfall intensified across several parts of the country.
In Delhi, some areas received more than 100 mm of rainfall within 24 hours, resulting in widespread waterlogging, traffic disruptions and uprooted trees.
Mumbai and neighbouring regions also witnessed heavy showers, with certain locations receiving a substantial portion of their average July rainfall within just a few days.
Flash floods, landslides in hilly areas, and disruptions to air and rail services affected normal life across northern, western and central India.
The southwest monsoon, which delivers the majority of India's annual rainfall, had weakened earlier but regained strength with the formation of low-pressure systems that drew moisture from the Bay of Bengal.
As a result, the monsoon returned with renewed intensity, bringing long-awaited relief to millions across the country.
However, meteorologists believe this active phase is likely to be short-lived.
WHICH REGIONS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN DRY?
Weather experts say that, as of Friday, July 10, the monsoon trough has begun shifting towards the Himalayan foothills. This movement is expected to allow dry westerly winds to spread across large parts of the country over the next five to seven days.
The intrusion of these dry winds is expected to interrupt widespread rainfall activity and temporarily weaken the monsoon across several regions.
Areas likely to experience little or no rainfall include Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Telangana.
These states are expected to witness mostly dry weather accompanied by high humidity, with the combination of heat and moisture pushing the "feels like" temperature to between 45°C and 50°C.
Meanwhile, states located closer to the shifted monsoon trough, including Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Sikkim and the northeastern states, are likely to continue receiving heavy to very heavy rainfall.
WILL THE IMD'S FORECAST PROVE ACCURATE?
The IMD had already projected below-normal rainfall for July, forecasting precipitation at around 94 per cent of the long-term average in its outlook issued on June 30.
The expected dry spell is broadly in line with that forecast and could once again push the seasonal rainfall total into deficit.
Although temporary breaks in the monsoon are a normal feature of the season, the arrival of this lull in mid-July has raised concerns for newly sown kharif crops such as paddy, which require consistent soil moisture during the early stages of growth.
Farmers who depend primarily on rainfall rather than irrigation could face difficulties if the dry conditions persist for an extended period.
Another active phase of the monsoon is expected later this month. Until then, several parts of the country are likely to experience a temporary break in rainfall.
Residents in affected regions should prepare for hot and humid weather while remaining alert to any sudden changes in weather conditions.
