Pakistan is simultaneously confronting multiple internal and external security challenges that have placed unprecedented pressure on its military establishment. From the insurgencies in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) to political unrest in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (POK) and escalating tensions along the Afghanistan border, Islamabad is facing four distinct crises that increasingly overlap in their impact on the state's security apparatus.
In Balochistan, separatist groups have expanded the scale and coordination of their attacks. In KP, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has intensified operations against security forces while extending its activities into Pashtun-majority areas of Balochistan. In POK, protests centred on political representation, governance and economic issues have persisted despite arrests, communication restrictions and heightened security deployments. Meanwhile, relations with Afghanistan's Taliban government have deteriorated sharply, with both sides accusing each other of cross-border militancy and engaging in periodic military exchanges.
According to the Global Terrorism Index 2026, Pakistan recorded 1,139 terrorism-related deaths in 2025, the highest annual figure since 2013. Although the number of attacks reportedly declined in June 2026, the Islamabad-based Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS) documented 118 attacks during the month, resulting in 112 deaths and 148 injuries.
Many analysts argue that while terrorism remains indefensible, some of the militant organisations now confronting Pakistan emerged as unintended consequences of the country's long-standing regional security policies.
The scale of the challenge has prompted concern within Pakistan itself. Bahawalpur-based entrepreneur Bilal Khalid remarked on social media that the country appeared to be facing a war-like situation across two of its four provinces, citing the near-daily cycle of attacks in KP and Balochistan.
Against this backdrop, former Afghan Vice President and intelligence chief Amrullah Saleh posted a cryptic message on X on July 13, suggesting that preliminary signs pointed towards the emergence of a new country in the region. Although Saleh did not specify which territory he was referring to, the post attracted attention amid Pakistan's mounting internal security challenges.
Strategic affairs analyst Brahma Chellaney argued that Pakistan was confronting a widening crisis of state authority, with insurgencies and political protests exposing deeper patterns of marginalisation and political disenfranchisement. He contended that these developments highlighted the limitations of Islamabad's security-centric approach and its diminishing ability to govern through political consensus rather than coercion.
Balochistan: A dual-front insurgency
Balochistan remains the epicentre of Pakistan's internal security challenges. The province has witnessed decades of armed resistance rooted in grievances relating to political exclusion, resource distribution and allegations of enforced disappearances.
Alongside armed insurgent groups, peaceful activists such as Mahrang Baloch have also faced arrests and legal action, while human rights organisations have repeatedly raised concerns over alleged enforced disappearances.
In July, TTP militants reportedly overran a police post near Mangi Dam in Balochistan's Ziarat district, killing nine police personnel, including two station house officers. Eighteen policemen were abducted and later killed.
Days later, militants belonging to the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) ambushed a Pakistan Army convoy in Lasbela district, killing 11 soldiers, including a junior commissioned officer. Together with another attack near Quetta that claimed four civilian lives, the incidents reportedly resulted in the deaths of at least 38 security personnel and four civilians within four days.
Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (F) chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman also criticised the military leadership, challenging Army Chief Asim Munir to resign from the army and contest elections. At the same gathering, Rehman claimed that the Pakistani government's writ no longer effectively existed across large parts of Balochistan.
Security analysts note that Pakistan faces two ideologically distinct armed movements in the province. While the BLA seeks an independent Balochistan based on ethnonationalist objectives, the TTP seeks to establish its interpretation of Islamic governance across Pakistan.
Conflict journalist Ihsanullah Tipu Mehsud observed that the TTP has expanded into Pashtun-majority areas of Balochistan even as the BLA continues attacks elsewhere in the province, forcing Pakistani security forces to confront two different militant campaigns simultaneously.
The BLA's coordinated attacks across more than ten cities earlier this year demonstrated its ability to temporarily seize urban spaces and target police stations, banks, railway infrastructure and military installations.
Pakistani economist R. Kakar described the current situation as the most serious security crisis in Balochistan's modern history, while noting that it receives comparatively limited attention within Pakistan.
Security analyst Muhammad Amir Rana argued in Dawn that the insurgency remains geographically dispersed, operationally flexible and strategically adaptive, warning that temporary declines in attacks should not necessarily be interpreted as evidence of weakening militant capabilities.
TTP intensifies pressure in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
While Balochistan presents one major challenge, the TTP continues to exert sustained pressure on Pakistani security forces across neighbouring Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, particularly in the former Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).
Ambushes, targeted killings and attacks have become increasingly frequent across districts including North and South Waziristan, Bannu, Bajaur, Khyber and Dera Ismail Khan.
On Wednesday, according to the Associated Press, three police personnel were killed while at least 20 others were injured during separate attacks in Upper Dir and Bannu.
The TTP has also increasingly employed commercially available quadcopters to target police stations and security checkpoints. Initially concentrated around Bannu and North Waziristan, the tactic has reportedly spread to additional districts.
Muhammad Amir Rana argued that Pakistan is no longer confronting a single-dimensional militant threat but rather a layered conflict involving drone attacks, cross-border sanctuaries, retaliatory military operations and information warfare.
In May, the United States announced the closure of its mission in Peshawar, citing security concerns.
Although Pakistan frequently announces militant casualties during intelligence-based operations against the TTP, the organisation has continued to regenerate following the collapse of its ceasefire agreement with Islamabad in November 2022.
The group's expansion into parts of Balochistan has also blurred the distinction between the security challenges in KP and Balochistan, forcing Pakistan's military to divide personnel, intelligence resources and air assets across multiple theatres.
Political unrest in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir
Unlike the insurgencies elsewhere, unrest in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir has largely taken the form of a political movement rather than an armed campaign.
For more than a month, the Jammu Kashmir Joint Awami Action Committee (JAAC) has mobilised demonstrations over inflation, electricity tariffs, flour prices, political rights and representation. Among its principal demands is reform of the 12 legislative seats reserved for refugees from Jammu and Kashmir residing elsewhere in Pakistan, which protesters argue enables Islamabad to exert disproportionate influence over the regional assembly.
The movement has continued despite arrests, internet restrictions and the designation of JAAC under anti-terrorism legislation. Reuters reported that at least nine people were killed during clashes on July 14.
Ahead of a proposed march from Rawalakot to Muzaffarabad, authorities reportedly deployed approximately 4,000 Rangers, police and Frontier Corps personnel. Cities were sealed, while journalists were reportedly prevented from entering Rawalakot amid allegations of an undeclared media blackout.
JAAC leaders claimed that as many as 40,000 people intended to participate in the march.
JAAC leader Sardar Aman Khan accused Pakistan of previously encouraging militancy in Kashmir for strategic purposes while now labelling protesters as terrorists. As the crackdown intensified, his criticism of the establishment also became more pointed.
Although the movement has primarily focused on governance, representation and economic issues rather than secession, analysts argue that the state's heavy-handed response has contributed to growing political alienation in the region.
Deteriorating relations with Afghanistan
Pakistan's relationship with Afghanistan's Taliban government has also deteriorated significantly since the Taliban returned to power.
Islamabad has repeatedly accused Kabul of providing sanctuary to TTP leaders, allegations the Taliban government has denied while maintaining that Pakistan's security problems are internal matters.
The disagreement has increasingly resulted in direct military exchanges.
Following an attack on the Rangers' headquarters in Karachi in June, Pakistan launched ground operations near Bajaur and conducted air strikes in Afghanistan's Paktia, Paktika and Kunar provinces. Islamabad stated that 29 militants were killed.
United Nations figures cited by Reuters, however, reported that at least 28 civilians were killed and 49 others injured during the strikes.
Earlier this year, Taliban authorities also claimed responsibility for drone and air strikes targeting Pakistani military positions, illustrating the increasingly militarised nature of relations along the Durand Line.
The border has consequently evolved into both an international frontier and an active zone of armed confrontation, with each cross-border strike carrying the risk of further escalation and reinforcing anti-Pakistan sentiment among sections of the Pashtun population on both sides.
Multiple crises, separate movements
Despite the simultaneous nature of these challenges, analysts caution against viewing them as components of a single coordinated rebellion.
The BLA, TTP, JAAC and the Afghan Taliban differ significantly in their objectives, ideological outlooks and methods. In some cases, their interests are directly opposed.
What links these movements is not operational coordination but their collective ability to expose the limitations of Pakistan's state capacity by compelling the military and security establishment to respond simultaneously across multiple fronts.
Pakistan's Defence Minister Khawaja Asif recently acknowledged the seriousness of the situation, warning in the National Assembly that separatist movements were active in two provinces and that the country's internal cohesion was under strain.
Strategic affairs analyst Sushant Sareen argued that sustained internal pressure could also encourage Pakistan's military leadership to seek external military confrontation as a means of diverting domestic attention and consolidating public support.
Against this backdrop, Amrullah Saleh's suggestion that a new country could emerge in the region remains speculative rather than evidence-based. Nevertheless, Pakistan's overlapping internal crises have intensified debate over the country's long-term political stability and the growing challenges confronting its security establishment.
