For weeks, meteorologists were concerned that a strengthening El Niño would lead to a weak and delayed monsoon over India.
Those fears appeared to be materialising through June, when the southwest monsoon stalled after its initial advance, leaving the country with one of its driest starts in decades.
However, within the first few days of July, the situation changed dramatically, with the southwest monsoon rapidly advancing to cover the entire country.
The monsoon has since revived with remarkable strength, bringing widespread rainfall across large parts of India and pushing national rainfall into surplus for the month.
How much rain has India received in July?
Mumbai has witnessed one of the most dramatic turnarounds. Between July 1 and July 7, the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) Colaba observatory recorded 791 mm of rainfall, already surpassing its average rainfall for the entire month of July, which stands at 768.5 mm. At Santacruz, rainfall reached 879 mm, just below its monthly normal of 919.9 mm.
Delhi has also experienced above-normal rainfall, recording 39.9 mm between July 1 and July 8, 2026—around 23 per cent higher than average for the period. Central and Peninsular India have similarly reported surplus rainfall after a sluggish June.
This raises an obvious question: if El Niño typically weakens the Indian monsoon, why has rainfall intensified so dramatically?
According to scientists, there is no contradiction.
El Niño primarily affects the timing of the monsoon and the frequency of rain-bearing weather systems. It does not necessarily determine how intense rainfall will be once favourable atmospheric conditions develop.
Increasingly, global warming is altering the nature of the monsoon, making rainfall less frequent but significantly more intense.
During El Niño years, the number of rainy days generally decreases. However, researchers say climate change has permanently altered monsoon behaviour, with rainfall now occurring in short-duration, high-intensity events regardless of whether El Niño is present.
Climate scientists explain that a warmer atmosphere can retain substantially more moisture. At the same time, rising sea surface temperatures in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal are supplying larger amounts of water vapour to developing weather systems.
Several atmospheric conditions have combined during July to produce the current spell of heavy rainfall.
Mumbai's delayed monsoon onset can partly be attributed to El Niño. However, scientists say warming over West Asia and changes in wind patterns over the Arabian Sea also contributed to the exceptionally heavy rainfall experienced during July.
Moisture drawn simultaneously from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, together with a developing low-pressure system and the orographic effect of the Western Ghats, created favourable conditions for extremely heavy rainfall across Mumbai and neighbouring coastal regions of Maharashtra.
Scientists say this reflects a broader shift linked to climate change. Instead of rainfall being distributed more evenly throughout the monsoon season, a larger share is now falling during a few intense cloudburst events, increasing the risk of urban flooding and overwhelming drainage infrastructure.
The national rainfall pattern tells a similar story. After experiencing significant rainfall deficits throughout June, India received 42 per cent above-normal rainfall between July 1 and July 8, driven by successive low-pressure systems and an active monsoon trough.
Researchers caution that El Niño can no longer be viewed in isolation. As global temperatures continue to rise, its effects are increasingly interacting with a warmer atmosphere and warmer oceans, resulting in a monsoon that is both more unpredictable and more extreme.
