After weeks of escalating rhetoric over a major military confrontation with Iran, US President Donald Trump appears to be looking for a way out of a conflict that has proved more difficult to conclude than anticipated. Trump may now be prepared to set aside the nuclear issue and declare the war a success if Tehran agrees to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
According to The Wall Street Journal, Trump has spent weeks laying the groundwork for such an outcome and has privately told senior aides that he could end the conflict without reaching a nuclear agreement with Tehran. However, Iran’s extensive demands for reopening the strait have made that potential exit more complicated. Tehran is seeking billions of dollars in payments, the lifting of the US naval blockade, the withdrawal of American forces from the region and several other concessions.
The developments have reduced Trump’s options for achieving a face-saving conclusion to the conflict while raising concerns that Iran may be preparing for a prolonged confrontation rather than a swift settlement.
TRUMP'S EXIT PLAN RUNS THROUGH HORMUZ
Iran’s ability to disrupt shipping through the narrow Strait of Hormuz with missile and drone attacks has provided Tehran with significant leverage. The disruption has slowed commercial shipping and caused instability in global oil markets.
Trump has repeatedly claimed in recent weeks that the strait was fully open, but those statements have turned out to be premature. Iran closed the waterway after the conflict began in February and has maintained that American warships and their allies should not be allowed to use the route. Tehran has also attempted to collect payments from commercial vessels passing through the strait.
US officials have rejected both Iran’s restrictions and any effort to introduce shipping tolls.
The situation worsened over the weekend after the United Arab Emirates said Iran had carried out a missile attack on one of its vessels. At the same time, a senior Iranian official laid out a wide-ranging list of conditions for reopening the waterway.
Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said the US would have to permanently end the war, lift its naval blockade, withdraw its military forces, remove all sanctions, release Iran’s frozen assets and provide war reparations. He also called for an end to US threats and criticism and demanded that American military operations against Iran’s militia allies across the region stop, according to Iran’s state news agency IRNA.
TRUMP LOOKS FOR A WAY TO DECLARE VICTORY
Trump’s push for an exit has also been shaped by domestic political considerations. With fewer than three months remaining before the US midterm elections and petrol prices still considerably higher than before the war began in late February, the President is seeking a way to persuade Americans that the conflict has achieved its intended goals.
In recent days, Trump told reporters that he had been ready to launch the largest military attack since World War II but was persuaded by US allies not to proceed. He also claimed that a deal with Iran was “imminent”, although no agreement has materialised so far.
On Friday, Trump appeared to suggest that the US had already achieved victory despite the absence of a nuclear agreement. He shared a social media post linking to an article titled “Donald Trump Won the Iran War”.
Vice President JD Vance, meanwhile, said the administration would continue applying pressure on Tehran to bring about long-term changes in its relationship with Washington.
“And if not, that's fine, too, we're just going to keep on applying the pressure we can apply, and getting as much oil and gas out of the Middle East so that Americans can enjoy lower gas and energy prices.”
“We're in the middle of the game,” Vance said.
NUCLEAR ISSUE MAY TAKE A BACK SEAT
The nuclear issue has remained central to tensions between Washington and Tehran since April, when the White House warned that Iran would not be allowed to acquire a nuclear weapon. Trump initially sought to make nuclear negotiations a key component of any agreement with Iran.
However, the talks became increasingly difficult, leading the White House to place greater emphasis on securing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
According to The Wall Street Journal, Trump has privately told senior aides in recent weeks that he believes Iran may be unable to restart its nuclear programme during his presidency after the US destroyed three major Iranian nuclear facilities in May 2025.
Trump has also argued in meetings that US intelligence capabilities would identify any attempt by Iran to rebuild those facilities or secretly develop a nuclear weapon. He believes the possibility of renewed US military action could serve as a long-term deterrent.
The President has also played down concerns over Iran’s stockpile of uranium stored underground.
“We've already got the nuclear material, because it's so far underground,” Trump said during a July summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. “Nobody's going to be able to get it except us.”
These calculations could allow Trump to move away from demanding a nuclear agreement if Tehran agrees to restore commercial traffic through the strait and the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear programme remains contained.
MONEY COULD BECOME A MAJOR OBSTACLE
Financial concessions sought by Tehran are likely to pose another significant challenge to any potential agreement. Iran wants billions of dollars in war reparations and the release of frozen overseas assets.
Trump has previously maintained that his administration would not allow US taxpayers’ money to be given to Iran.
However, US officials cited by The Wall Street Journal said an agreement could be difficult to achieve without Washington agreeing to release at least some Iranian assets, potentially with conditions attached. Another major issue is whether the US would provide sanctions waivers that would allow Iran to resume oil exports to international markets.
Washington had granted similar waivers last June as part of an interim peace arrangement with Tehran. The ceasefire later broke down after Iran attacked vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, leading the US to reinstate sanctions on Iranian oil exports.
The issue has therefore become closely tied to whether Trump can reach an agreement that allows him to declare the conflict over without making concessions that could create another political challenge for him domestically.
