The latest India Today Mood of the Nation (MOTN) survey has highlighted a significant shift in Uttar Pradesh, a state that plays a decisive role in shaping India’s electoral outcomes. According to the August 2026 survey, the INDIA bloc could have a slight advantage over the BJP-led NDA in the state if Lok Sabha elections were held today, based on projected seat numbers.
Of Uttar Pradesh’s 80 Lok Sabha seats, the survey projects 41 for the INDIA bloc and 38 for the NDA. In terms of vote share, the INDIA bloc is estimated to receive 40%, a decline of 2 percentage points from the January MOTN survey. The NDA is projected at 42%, marking a larger 5-point drop from its previous projection.
The Mood of the Nation is a twice-yearly survey commissioned by the India Today Group for nearly two decades. The August 2026 edition was conducted by CVoter, which directly surveyed 25,184 respondents between July 1 and August 25. It also used 91,795 interviews carried out over the previous six months as part of CVoter’s regular tracking exercise.
At the national level, the BJP continues to maintain a strong position despite recent youth-led protests and movements. However, its support appears to be weakening somewhat. The NDA is projected to win 326 Lok Sabha seats if elections were held today, 26 fewer than the 352 seats forecast in the January MOTN survey.
The survey also found that 47% of respondents believe the controversy surrounding alleged theft of donations at the Ram temple in Ayodhya has negatively impacted both the Narendra Modi-led central government and the Yogi Adityanath government in Uttar Pradesh. Another 8% felt the issue had affected only the Centre, while 7% believed it had impacted only the state government.
However, CVoter founder and psephologist Yashwant Deshmukh argued that the more important factor behind the shift was not the Ram Mandir controversy but the University Grants Commission’s (UGC) equity regulations. According to him, parents from Gen X who have children belonging to Gen Z were concerned by the regulations, as they evoked memories of the Mandal Commission period during the late 1980s and 1990s. He said many parents are now worried that the UGC rules could have an impact on their children.
The latest projection represents a major change from the January 2026 MOTN survey. At that time, the NDA was projected to secure 48 seats in Uttar Pradesh, while the INDIA bloc was expected to win 31. The August figures represent a 10-seat increase for the INDIA bloc and an equivalent 10-seat decline for the NDA.
Compared with the 2024 Lok Sabha election results, however, the latest projections show only a modest change. The INDIA bloc had won 43 seats in Uttar Pradesh in 2024, while the NDA secured 36. The latest MOTN survey projects 41 seats for the INDIA bloc and 38 for the NDA.
That means the current projection is two seats lower for the INDIA bloc and two seats higher for the NDA compared with their 2024 performances.
The contrast becomes much sharper when the August survey is compared with the January 2026 projections. The NDA’s projected tally has dropped from 48 to 38 seats, while the INDIA bloc’s estimate has climbed from 31 to 41 seats.
