India's southwest monsoon, which has already witnessed a season marked by sharp swings between severe rainfall deficits and episodes of heavy rain, could face renewed disruption after the United Nations' weather agency warned that El Niño is likely to strengthen into a strong event in the coming months.
The warning from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) comes even as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall for August, raising concerns that the latter half of the monsoon season may remain weaker than usual.
According to the WMO, a strong El Niño is expected to intensify during the August-October 2026 period.
Combined with exceptionally warm ocean temperatures and the possibility of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the climate pattern is expected to push temperatures above normal across much of the world while significantly altering global rainfall patterns.
While some regions could receive above-average rainfall, others may face a heightened risk of drought.
India's monsoon has followed an erratic pattern this year. June ended with a rainfall deficit of 39.8%, making it one of the driest Junes in over a century after the monsoon's advance stalled across large parts of the country for several weeks.
Rainfall improved considerably in July as multiple low-pressure systems became active, bringing widespread showers across central, western and northern India.
However, the recovery has been uneven, with some regions recording surplus rainfall while others continue to remain in deficit.
Despite the improvement in July, the IMD has projected that August rainfall will remain below normal at around 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
The weather agency has also indicated that El Niño is likely to strengthen into a moderate event during the latter half of the monsoon season, increasing uncertainty over the spatial distribution of rainfall.
El Niño could disrupt weather patterns
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon caused by warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
Although it originates thousands of kilometres away from India, it influences weather systems across the globe and has historically been associated with weaker southwest monsoons over the Indian subcontinent.
The WMO said current forecasts indicate that sea surface temperature anomalies in key monitoring regions could exceed 2.9°C between August and October, signalling the development of a strong El Niño.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that the climate phenomenon is adding to a world already grappling with extreme heat, devastating wildfires and record-high ocean temperatures.
Describing the situation, Guterres said El Niño has now "entered our home."
