The BJP-led NDA continues to hold a strong position to retain power if Lok Sabha elections were held today, although its popularity appears to be showing some signs of decline, according to the latest India Today-CVoter Mood of the Nation survey. In power for 12 years, the NDA is projected to win 326 seats, down 26 from the 352 seats forecast in the January MOTN survey.
Although the figure is well below Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘400 paar’ target during the 2024 election campaign, the findings suggest that voter confidence in the NDA remains largely intact. However, the alliance faces the growing challenge posed by Gen Z as it looks ahead to the 2029 elections.
The INDIA bloc, meanwhile, is not expected to make any major gains compared with the January survey. The latest poll projects 185 seats for the Congress-led alliance, marginally up from the 182 seats predicted in January. However, this remains significantly below the 234 seats the opposition bloc secured in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, its strongest challenge to the NDA since 2014.
The Mood of the Nation is a twice-yearly survey commissioned by the India Today Group for nearly two decades. The August 2026 edition, conducted by CVoter, surveyed 25,184 people between July 1 and August 25. It also incorporated 91,795 interviews carried out over the previous six months as part of CVoter’s regular tracking exercise.
BJP SEES DECLINE, CONGRESS MAKES GAINS
The party-wise figures reveal an interesting trend.
The latest MOTN survey projects 261 seats for the BJP, compared with 287 in the January survey. The earlier projection had placed the party comfortably above the 272-seat majority mark. Despite the decline, the latest estimate remains higher than the 240 seats the BJP won in the 2024 elections.
The dip comes amid growing criticism of the BJP among Gen Z, particularly over alleged exam paper leaks and problems within the education system. Student protests at Delhi’s Jantar Mantar in July continued for weeks and eventually contributed to Dharmendra Pradhan stepping down as Education Minister, an uncommon development during the Modi government.
The Congress, meanwhile, appears to be gaining ground, with Rahul Gandhi pursuing a more aggressive strategy to challenge the BJP.
The latest survey projects 106 seats for the Congress, up sharply from the 80 seats forecast in January. It is also higher than the 97 seats projected for the party in the August 2025 MOTN survey.
The rise comes as the Congress has increased its focus on several prominent issues, including women’s reservation and the police action against student protesters on July 20.
In terms of vote share, the NDA is projected to secure 45.1%, slightly lower than the 47% estimated in January. This is also the alliance’s lowest projected vote share since the August 2025 survey, which put it at 46.7%. In the 2024 elections, the NDA secured around 44% of the vote.
The INDIA bloc, meanwhile, is projected to receive 39.1% of the vote, a marginal increase from the 39% forecast in the January MOTN survey.
