A discarded upper stage of SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket has likely impacted the Moon near the Einstein Crater at around 12.05 pm IST. However, official confirmation of the collision is expected only after data from orbiting spacecraft is analysed over the next several hours.
The approximately 4,500-kg rocket stage had been drifting through space for 19 months after launching the Blue Ghost mission to the Moon. Its impact trajectory had been tracked with remarkable precision, narrowing the expected collision time to within seconds and the location to within a few hundred metres.
Several space agencies are monitoring the event, and lunar orbiters are expected to identify the newly formed impact crater in the coming days.
What hit the Moon?
The object was not an entire Falcon 9 rocket but its upper stage—the second stage that continues the mission after the reusable first stage separates and returns.
The stage, measuring around 12 metres in length and weighing roughly 4,500 kg, was launched on January 15, 2025, carrying Firefly Aerospace's Blue Ghost-1 and ispace's Hakuto-R Mission 2 lunar landers.
After completing its mission and exhausting its fuel, the stage gradually drifted under the influence of solar activity and the Moon's gravitational pull, eventually setting it on a collision course with the lunar surface.
Why did it take 19 months to crash?
Following the launch, the upper stage remained in a broad, unstable orbit between the Earth and the Moon.
Over time, the combined gravitational influence of the Earth, Moon and Sun, along with the subtle pressure exerted by sunlight—known as solar radiation pressure—slowly altered its trajectory.
These small changes accumulated over many months until they eventually directed the stage toward the Moon.
SpaceX had previously stated that the stage was passivated, meaning any remaining fuel had been vented to minimise the risk of explosions. However, performing a controlled disposal burn is not feasible for upper stages travelling on such high-energy trajectories.
How powerful was the impact?
The rocket stage is estimated to have struck the Moon at around 8,700 kmph, releasing energy comparable to roughly three tonnes of TNT.
Since the Moon has no atmosphere to slow incoming objects, the stage would have impacted the surface at nearly its full velocity.
Scientists expect the collision to have created a crater measuring between 20 and 30 metres across while ejecting more than a million kilograms of lunar soil, known as regolith, into the surrounding area.
Why is the impact important?
Unlike natural meteor impacts, scientists knew the rocket stage's mass, speed, shape and expected impact time well in advance.
Researchers believe this makes the event a rare opportunity to observe an artificial impact on the Moon and refine techniques for accurately locating such collisions, an important step for future lunar seismology studies.
NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and South Korea's Danuri spacecraft are expected to compare before-and-after images of the impact site over the coming days to determine the crater's exact size.
India's Chandrayaan-2 orbiter, which continues to operate around the Moon, may also be able to capture images of the newly formed crater.
