On August 15, 2021, the United States experienced a sense of déjà vu in Afghanistan as American troops rushed to withdraw from Kabul while thousands of Afghans who had worked alongside US forces since the 2001 invasion desperately sought evacuation as the Taliban advanced.
The day effectively marked the end of the US military presence in Afghanistan, with the Taliban returning to power after two decades of insurgency.
The dramatic scenes immediately drew comparisons with Saigon in April 1975, when the final US personnel fled South Vietnam shortly before communist forces captured the city, bringing the Vietnam War to an end.
Five years later, Afghanistan finds itself at another critical juncture.
5 YEARS ON, A REALITY CHECK?
The Taliban government has gradually re-entered the international diplomatic landscape, using Afghanistan’s strategic location between South Asia, Central Asia and the Middle East to establish economic and political relationships. For ordinary Afghans, however, conditions remain considerably more difficult.
The Taliban marked five years in power on Saturday by projecting an image of stability and control, even as humanitarian organisations and rights groups warned that Afghanistan continues to face severe economic and humanitarian challenges.
Outside the former US embassy in Kabul, armoured Taliban vehicles took part in a parade, with fighters carrying flags and banners during celebrations that the government described as a “victory day” over Western forces.
Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani said in a video message that the Taliban’s return to power had been made possible through “morale, courage” and “divine assistance”.
At the same time, he acknowledged that the country continued to face “issues and problems”.
HUMAN RIGHTS CRISIS DEEPENS
The situation of women and girls remains among the most serious challenges facing Afghanistan. Since regaining control, the Taliban have introduced extensive restrictions on education, employment and participation in public life.
Around 2.5 million girls have been prevented from attending secondary schools and universities. Data released by UN Women this week indicated that half of Afghan women now leave their homes only once or twice a month.
The restrictions have continued to be a major barrier to broader international recognition of the Taliban administration. Russia remains the only country to have formally recognised the Taliban government.
MORE ENGAGEMENT, LITTLE RECOGNITION
Despite the absence of widespread formal recognition, several countries have increased their engagement with Kabul. India, Qatar, China, Iran and several Central Asian nations have hosted Taliban representatives or expanded diplomatic and economic interactions.
The Taliban has increasingly sought to use Afghanistan’s geographical position as a source of geopolitical importance, presenting the country as a potential trade and connectivity link between surrounding regions.
These efforts have provided Kabul with greater diplomatic room than it had immediately after the 2021 takeover. However, their benefits for ordinary Afghans have remained limited.
HUMANITARIAN CRISIS REFUSES TO EASE
Afghanistan has faced a series of additional pressures, including repeated droughts, earthquakes and mass deportations of Afghan nationals from neighbouring Iran and Pakistan.
Meanwhile, international humanitarian funding has declined substantially. The United States, which was previously Afghanistan’s largest source of aid, has significantly reduced its assistance.
More than half of Afghanistan’s approximately 45 million people now require humanitarian aid, while unemployment has nearly doubled over the past five years.
The situation has been further complicated by tensions with Pakistan, with disruptions along the border affecting one of Afghanistan’s key trade routes.
ECONOMY STILL CUT OFF FROM THE WORLD
Afghanistan’s economy remains largely disconnected from the international financial system. Since 2021, imports have increasingly exceeded exports, while government finances have contracted considerably.
The Taliban’s latest publicly released budget, covering the 2023 fiscal year, was approximately $2.44 billion, less than half the roughly $6 billion budget recorded in 2021.
That contrast highlights the central dilemma facing Afghanistan five years after the Taliban takeover.
The Taliban administration is more firmly entrenched, increasingly visible on the international stage and more confident in its engagement with foreign governments than it was in 2021. Yet the country remains poorer, more isolated and heavily reliant on humanitarian assistance.
Five years after the final US troops departed Kabul, the Taliban’s hold over political power has strengthened further. However, the task of rebuilding an Afghanistan devastated by decades of conflict remains far from complete.
