Voters in poll-bound Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Uttarakhand appear to be more unhappy with their sitting MLAs than with the state governments headed by their respective chief ministers, ahead of the 2027 Assembly elections, according to a Vote Vibe survey. However, the latest India Today-CVoter Mood of the Nation survey suggests that this localised dissatisfaction has not consistently translated into electoral setbacks for the ruling parties in the three states.
Nearly half of respondents in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand, along with more than 45% in Punjab, said they were dissatisfied with their MLAs. By comparison, the three state governments received either positive net satisfaction ratings or results that were almost evenly split between satisfaction and dissatisfaction.
The August 2026 Mood of the Nation survey also showed a mixed electoral picture. The BJP remained ahead in Uttarakhand, the Congress-Samajwadi Party alliance held a narrow seat advantage in Uttar Pradesh, while Punjab continued to witness a closely divided contest.
Punjab and Uttarakhand are expected to go to the polls first, with the terms of their current Assemblies ending on March 16 and March 28, 2027, respectively. Uttar Pradesh's Assembly term expires on May 22, 2027, according to the Election Commission of India.
The August 2026 India Today-CVoter Mood of the Nation survey covered 25,184 respondents between July 1 and August 25, along with 91,795 additional interviews conducted through CVoter's regular tracking over the previous six months.
Vote Vibe, a public opinion platform, released its first State Vibe tracker on August 25 after surveying more than 6,000 voters across the three states.
Political analyst and Vote Vibe founder Amitabh Tiwari told India Today Digital that much of the dissatisfaction with MLAs stemmed from their lack of accessibility.
"People complain that many MLAs leave constituency work to their relatives, friends and family members and then decamp to the state capital," Tiwari said. "This inaccessibility and people's inability to get their work done create discontent."
The findings could influence how political parties select candidates and distribute tickets for the 2027 elections, particularly if they decide to replace a large number of unpopular sitting MLAs in an effort to improve their electoral prospects.
UP MLAs FACE HIGHEST DISSATISFACTION, 49% UNHAPPY
Uttar Pradesh recorded the highest level of dissatisfaction with sitting MLAs among the three states. About 49% of respondents said they were dissatisfied or completely dissatisfied with their current MLA, while only 27.9% expressed satisfaction.
The Yogi Adityanath-led state government received a comparatively better assessment. Around 41.8% of respondents said they were satisfied with its performance, compared with 38.4% who were dissatisfied, giving the government a modest net-positive rating.
Unemployment emerged as the biggest electoral concern, with 23.1% identifying it as the main issue. Farmers' concerns followed at 14.1%, while education and healthcare stood at 13.7%. Inflation was cited by 12.2%, while corruption and the Ram Temple donation controversy accounted for 11.4%.
The BJP-led alliance held a narrow lead over the Samajwadi Party alliance in voting preference, at 41.8% compared with 38.7%. The perception of who would actually win was even closer, with 41.2% expecting an SP alliance victory and 41.1% predicting a BJP-led NDA win.
The wider Lok Sabha projection, however, presented a less favourable picture for the BJP-led NDA. The India Today-CVoter Mood of the Nation survey projected 41 of Uttar Pradesh's 80 parliamentary seats for the Congress-led bloc and 38 for the NDA. This represented a shift from January, when the NDA was projected to win 48 seats and the Congress-led INDIA bloc 31.
Yogi Adityanath remained the most preferred choice for chief minister, with 43.4% support, followed by SP chief Akhilesh Yadav at 35.5%. Younger voters showed stronger support for Akhilesh, while respondents aged above 45 leaned towards Yogi and the BJP.
UTTARAKHAND GOVERNMENT RETAINS SUPPORT AS MLAs TAKE A HIT
Uttarakhand recorded the most noticeable gap between public opinion of the state government and local MLAs. While 39.1% of respondents said they were satisfied with the BJP government led by Pushkar Singh Dhami and 38.1% were dissatisfied, perceptions of sitting MLAs were considerably more negative.
Around 48% expressed dissatisfaction with their current MLAs, compared with just 27.1% who were satisfied. Another 19.3% described their MLA's performance as average or fair.
Unemployment was the leading election issue at 20.7%, followed closely by education and healthcare at 18.9%. Inflation was mentioned by 12.9%, while law and order and women's safety accounted for 10.8%. Corruption was cited by 9.8% and basic infrastructure by 9.5%.
The BJP led the Congress in voting preference by roughly four percentage points, at 40.9% against 36.7%. It also held an advantage in winner perception, with 39.7% expecting the BJP to win compared with 36.3% who expected a Congress victory.
The BJP's advantage was even more pronounced in the India Today-CVoter Lok Sabha projection. The BJP was projected to retain four of Uttarakhand's five parliamentary seats, while the Congress bloc was projected to win one. The BJP had won all five seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha election and had also been projected to sweep all five in January 2026.
Dhami remained the leading choice for chief minister at 28.2%, followed by Congress veteran Harish Rawat at 23.3% and former Congress state chief Ganesh Godiyal at 16.6%.
Uttarakhand also had the least settled electorate among the three states. Only 52.5% said they had completely decided whom they would vote for, while 25.6% had a preference but had not yet made a final decision.
DRUGS AND JOBS DOMINATE PUNJAB'S ELECTORAL BATTLE
Punjab also showed considerably greater dissatisfaction with sitting MLAs than with the AAP government headed by Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann. While 40% of respondents were satisfied with the government and 35.4% were dissatisfied, dissatisfaction with MLAs stood at 45.3%, compared with 32.2% who were satisfied.
Drugs, a longstanding concern in Punjab, emerged as the state's biggest issue at 25.7%. Unemployment and migration followed closely at 24.3%.
The ruling AAP led the voting preference with 34%, followed by the Congress at 30.2%. The BJP secured 12.2%, the Shiromani Akali Dal 11.3%, and jailed MP Amritpal Singh's Akali Dal (Waris Punjab De) 6.6%.
The Lok Sabha projection in the India Today-CVoter Mood of the Nation survey highlighted the difference between how Punjab voters could approach state and national elections.
The August survey projected 11 of Punjab's 13 parliamentary seats for the Congress and its allies, compared with 10 in the January survey and the 10 seats the alliance collectively won in 2024. The BJP-led NDA was projected to win one seat, while the remaining seat was projected to go to a party outside the two national alliances.
Bhagwant Mann remained the clear favourite for chief minister, receiving 40.1% support, nearly twice the 20.6% support recorded by Congress leader and former chief minister Charanjit Singh Channi.
Punjab also had the most settled electorate of the three states, with 71.2% saying they had already decided their vote.
WHY ARE VOTERS UNHAPPY WITH THEIR MLAs?
Amitabh Tiwari said the dissatisfaction with local MLAs could have a significant impact on the 2027 Assembly elections, particularly because candidate image and personality could influence a meaningful share of voters.
"Around 10-15% of voters across the three states were likely to base their choice on a candidate's personality and image," Tiwari told India Today Digital.
"The candidate is, therefore, likely to play a pivotal role in the outcome," he added.
Strong dissatisfaction with sitting legislators often encourages political parties to deny tickets to unpopular incumbents. However, Tiwari cautioned that replacing sitting MLAs would not necessarily eliminate anti-incumbency.
"We have to see how many sitting MLAs are denied tickets, how parties manage any sabotage that follows and how this affects voters' choices," he said.
Overall, voter dissatisfaction in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Uttarakhand appears to be directed more strongly at individual MLAs than at the governments in power. This could make candidate selection, local accessibility and constituency-level performance nearly as important as the popularity of the chief ministers in determining the outcome of the three 2027 Assembly elections.
