Europe is facing a security scenario it has worried about for years: the possibility of a broader crisis involving Russia. Recent reports indicate that European nations are preparing for the prospect of Moscow testing Nato’s commitment to defending its members beyond the battlefield in Ukraine. From warnings about potential drone and missile attacks to increasing concerns over sabotage and cyber warfare, governments across Europe are taking steps to prepare their populations for a possible confrontation with Russia, even as Russian President Vladimir Putin maintains that Moscow has “no aggressive intentions” towards Europe.
The latest warning came from French President Emmanuel Macron on Friday (September 18), who said Russia’s “hybrid threat” to France and Europe had grown stronger.
After meeting political party leaders and candidates ahead of France’s 2027 presidential election, Macron said he had instructed officials to develop measures to safeguard critical infrastructure and sensitive defence-industry facilities from potential drone and cyberattacks. He also warned that recent Russian hybrid activities targeting France would not go “without a response”.
Macron’s remarks came a day after Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told Parliament that intelligence assessments suggested Russia could carry out drone or missile attacks against countries backing Ukraine, including Nato members such as Poland. Tusk said Moscow could potentially portray such incidents as “accidental” attacks intended to test whether Nato members would activate the alliance’s collective-defence commitments.
For Europe, therefore, the concern is not necessarily an immediate Russian invasion of a Nato member. Instead, fears are growing that Moscow could gradually probe the alliance through limited strikes, drones, sabotage or cyber operations, creating pressure without immediately escalating into a full-scale war.
RUSSIAN THREATS PUT EUROPE ON HIGH ALERT
European governments have reported an increasing number of incidents involving airspace breaches, suspected acts of sabotage and other activities they have linked to Russia. Nato members have increasingly characterised these incidents as part of a wider Russian “hybrid campaign” aimed at weakening European support for Ukraine.
Hybrid warfare is a broad concept covering actions that stop short of conventional military conflict. Cyberattacks, sabotage, disinformation, interference in political processes and the deployment of non-attack drones can all be components of such campaigns. European officials have repeatedly accused Russia of employing these tactics, while Moscow has denied involvement in such incidents.
Macron said Russia had sharply increased its activities in recent weeks, pointing to incidents involving drones and cyber threats. France’s new measures are expected to focus particularly on critical infrastructure and vulnerable facilities connected to the country’s defence and technology industries.
Germany, which accused Russia in August of carrying out a drone attack at Leipzig airport, is also preparing its healthcare infrastructure for a possible major conflict. Lithuania, meanwhile, has revised its evacuation arrangements.
Nato forces have also held military exercises in the Baltic region, including drills involving Germany and Sweden near the strategically important Swedish island of Gotland.
These preparations come as European officials increasingly discuss the possibility of Russia testing Nato’s eastern flank.
Tusk’s warning was particularly direct. He said Russia could attempt to create incidents involving drones or missiles crossing into Nato territory while describing them as accidental. In his assessment, repeated incidents could be aimed at undermining confidence in Nato’s collective-defence system.
“In response to the deteriorating security situation, Switzerland has three objectives: strengthen resilience, improve protection and enhance defence capabilities. The Federal Council has adopted Switzerland's Security Policy Strategy 2026,” the Swiss Federal Government posted on X after security concerns were raised across Europe on Friday.
European officials, however, have not publicly established that a Russian attack on Nato is imminent. The measures being taken instead indicate that governments are preparing for the possibility of such a scenario.
GERMANY'S TENSIONS WITH RUSSIA GROW
Germany’s Consulate General in Saint Petersburg, Russia, closed on Friday, ending more than five decades of diplomatic operations in the city.
According to the mission’s website, its responsibilities will now be transferred to the German Embassy in Moscow. DW’s Russian-language service reported that on September 17, the German flag, coat of arms and other official symbols were taken down from the consulate building.
The German Consulate General in Saint Petersburg had been operating since 1972.
“People have no idea how close we are to World War 3,” Rome-based journalist Thomas Fazi wrote on X in response to the closure.
A Bloomberg report published on September 16 said German hospitals were preparing for the possibility of war, with the Bundeswehr anticipating that as many as 1,000 wounded soldiers could require treatment each day.
Germany’s five military hospitals would quickly reach capacity, meaning civilian hospitals could be required to handle battlefield casualties. The country is also bringing back Cold War-era medical facilities, including a nuclear bunker hospital in Ulm that was designed to accommodate up to 2,000 people.
Civilian surgeons are being trained to treat combat-related injuries, while Germany is also attempting to reduce its dependence on China for essential medical supplies.
HOW OTHER EUROPEAN COUNTRIES ARE PREPARING FOR EMERGENCY
Governments across Europe are strengthening evacuation procedures, civil-defence measures and emergency-response systems as concerns about a wider security crisis increase.
Lithuania approved a national evacuation plan in July and estimated that around 75 per cent of its population would be capable of evacuating independently, with authorities assisting the remainder. Evacuation routes from Vilnius include a corridor towards Poland’s Podlaskie region, while the Baltic countries have coordinated plans for potentially moving hundreds of thousands of people living close to the Russian and Belarusian borders.
Poland has also revised its evacuation plans for military threats, war and other emergencies, including arrangements for vulnerable populations. Finland has incorporated guidance on drone threats and air-raid alerts into its national preparedness system, while civil-defence drills simulate cyberattacks, sabotage, infrastructure failures and missile strikes.
Latvia has strengthened security along its eastern border, expanded its drone and counter-drone capabilities and launched a new security operation along the frontier.
The United Kingdom is also encouraging households to keep basic emergency supplies. On Friday, Luxembourg Airport temporarily suspended operations after unauthorised drones were spotted, disrupting flights and prompting an investigation.
PUTIN SAYS RUSSIA DOES NOT WANT WAR WITH EUROPE
Moscow has rejected the warnings and concerns expressed by European governments.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Saturday (September 19) that Russia had “no aggressive intentions toward Europe or European countries” and was prepared to restore relations and cooperate with its European neighbours.
He accused European leaders of invoking the alleged Russian threat to support their own policies and claimed that they were preparing for a war with Moscow.
Putin also criticised Nato and European military exercises in the Baltic Sea, alleging that participating countries were preparing to seize civilian vessels. He warned that Russia would respond if required.
“Let us live in peace — otherwise, we, too, will be forced to respond,” Putin said on Saturday.
Putin’s remarks are consistent with the Kremlin’s wider position that European nations are increasing tensions by expanding military preparations and continuing to support Ukraine.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had earlier warned that a direct confrontation between Nato and Russia could turn into a very short war, highlighting the potential dangers of an escalation between the two sides.
US MULLING TO WITHDRAW TROOPS FROM EUROPE, ADDS FUEL TO RUSSIA FEAR
Another source of uncertainty is the future of the US military presence in Europe, with Washington reportedly reviewing its troop deployment.
The Pentagon is considering options to withdraw between 25,000 and 40,000 American troops from Europe, NBC News reported.
Around 80,000 US troops are currently stationed across the continent, meaning the larger withdrawal option would amount to a significant reduction. No final decision has been taken.
Germany, Italy and Spain, which host some of the biggest US military deployments in Europe, could be affected if the Pentagon proceeds with a withdrawal. The proposals form part of a wider review of America’s military presence on the continent.
The timing is significant because Europe has depended on the US military presence and Nato’s collective-defence framework for decades as a deterrent against Russia.
A potential reduction in American troop numbers comes as European governments are already raising concerns about Russian hybrid operations and the possibility of attacks targeting Nato territory.
However, the Pentagon’s review does not by itself indicate that the US is abandoning Nato or that a troop withdrawal has been ordered. The proposals are still being considered.
European governments are preparing for the possibility of a more serious confrontation with Russia. Their warnings, military exercises and preparations involving critical infrastructure indicate that they consider Russian hybrid activities and the possibility of escalation to be significant security concerns.
At the same time, preparing for a possible attack is different from establishing that Russia has made a decision to launch one.
