An 18-hour offensive along Yemen's Red Sea coastline has brought the Iranian-backed Shia militant organisation Ansar Allah, widely known as the Houthis, close to gaining control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The 29-km-wide waterway links the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and, further ahead, the Arabian Sea. If the Houthis establish control over the passage, Iran could potentially replicate its strategy in the Strait of Hormuz and effectively disrupt Gulf energy shipments headed towards the Indian Ocean.
For India, the consequences could be particularly serious. Bab el-Mandeb is a crucial maritime chokepoint used not only to bring crude oil and other petroleum products into India but also to connect the country with European markets. Ships transporting refined fuel, medicines, machinery and other goods regularly cross the strait on their way to major European ports such as Rotterdam in the Netherlands and Marseille in France.
A takeover of the Bab el-Mandeb, whose name is commonly translated as "Gate of Tears", could therefore threaten India's access to essential oil supplies. Petroleum shipments from the Gulf have already faced major disruptions since the US-Iran war began. At the same time, any prolonged disruption could make India's exports considerably more expensive and less competitive in international markets.
WHAT IS THE BAB EL-MANDEB STRAIT AND WHY DOES IT MATTER?
Bab el-Mandeb is a narrow 29-km-wide waterway separating Yemen from Djibouti. It serves as a major international shipping corridor, linking the Mediterranean with the Indian Ocean through the Suez Canal.
The strait has long played a crucial role in transporting oil and other petroleum products. Saudi crude loaded onto tankers at western ports such as Jeddah and Yanbu has traditionally travelled through Bab el-Mandeb towards Asian markets.
The route is equally important for Asian exporters sending goods to Europe and North Africa. Cargo vessels use the strait to reach Mediterranean ports or continue through the Strait of Gibraltar towards Atlantic destinations such as Rotterdam. Indian refiners, for example, supplied roughly 60% of Europe's diesel demand in August, with most of those shipments travelling through the Bab el-Mandeb route.
The importance of the "Gate of Tears" has grown even further since the US-Iran war began. When Tehran closed the Strait of Hormuz, which had been the most direct route for Gulf exporters heading towards Asia, exporters increasingly turned to Bab el-Mandeb. Alternative overland infrastructure, including the 1,200-km East-West Crude Oil Pipeline, has also been used to bypass Hormuz by moving oil to Saudi Arabia's western ports.
It is this strategically critical route that now faces a growing threat from the Houthis, who have moved close to controlling its approaches along Yemen's Red Sea coast.
HOW DID THE HOUTHIS MOVE TOWARDS DOMINATING BAB EL-MANDEB?
Ansar Allah, or the Houthis, have been engaged in Yemen's power struggle for more than a decade. After capturing Sanaa in 2014, the Iran-supported group expanded its control across large parts of northern and western Yemen, including significant portions of the Red Sea coastline.
Their expansion triggered a Saudi-led military intervention in 2015, but the coalition was unable to remove the Houthis from power. The war eventually developed into a prolonged stalemate. Saudi Arabia gradually reduced its direct military involvement after years of airstrikes and continued to support forces fighting the Houthis. A UN-mediated truce in 2022 brought down the intensity of the fighting but failed to deliver a permanent political settlement.
The Houthis may still be stereotyped as militia fighters wearing flip-flops and carrying Kalashnikovs while travelling in heavily armed Toyota pickups. However, Ansar Allah has developed into a powerful military organisation equipped with ballistic missiles, drones and other advanced weapons, with Iranian assistance playing an important role in its capabilities.
That military strength was demonstrated during the group's latest offensive, which reportedly unfolded in just over 18 hours.
Reuters reported on Friday that Houthi forces had captured the strategically important Red Sea port city of Mocha and were moving towards the Hanish Islands. Reports suggested that Iran supported the operation by promising additional assistance and sending Iranian officers to Yemen, although Tehran has publicly denied providing such support.
The Associated Press separately reported that the Houthis had seized Mayun, also known as Perim Island, which lies within the Bab el-Mandeb. The Financial Times reported that Houthi forces had also reached the Zuqar and Hanish islands.
The rapid territorial gains effectively placed Yemen's Red Sea coastline under Ansar Allah's control and prompted senior Houthi official Mohammed al-Bukhaiti to tell media organisations that the group had "taken control of Bab el-Mandeb."
WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF BAB EL-MANDEB WERE CLOSED?
A Houthi spokesperson told Reuters on Thursday that international navigation and trade through the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb would remain safe and uninterrupted, provided operations were restricted to designated targets.
However, Ansar Allah has maintained a blockade against Saudi shipping through the strait since July. Its latest territorial gains along the Red Sea coast could make enforcing that blockade substantially easier.
Because maritime insurers are highly sensitive to risk, even a small number of attacks on vessels passing through Bab el-Mandeb could cause insurance premiums to surge. Shipping companies could then decide to avoid the route altogether. A similar situation occurred in late 2023, when repeated Houthi attacks on commercial vessels prompted at least 2,000 ships to avoid the Suez Canal and instead travel around the Cape of Good Hope, delaying important shipments bound for India.
If Houthi attacks and rising insurance costs make Bab el-Mandeb effectively unusable, Saudi Arabia could face some of the greatest consequences. Asia is the kingdom's primary crude oil market, with China, Japan, South Korea and India among its biggest customers.
Oil shipments departing from Yanbu would have to take a much longer route, travelling north through the Suez Canal, across the Mediterranean and through Gibraltar before heading around the Cape of Good Hope towards Asia. The journey from Yanbu to Kagoshima, for example, could increase from roughly 14,200 km to 27,200 km.
Such a diversion could add several weeks to delivery schedules while sharply increasing fuel and transportation expenses, transforming an important shortcut into a major logistical challenge.
HOW COULD A BAB EL-MANDEB BLOCKADE AFFECT INDIA?
India would also face significant repercussions, beginning with potentially higher global energy prices. Oil volumes moving through the strait have already fallen from approximately 9.3 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum products in 2023 to around 4.2 million barrels per day during the first half of 2025.
The news of the Houthi offensive pushed Brent crude above $100 per barrel before it settled near $99. A prolonged closure of Bab el-Mandeb could put additional upward pressure on energy prices. India could look for alternative sources, including Russia, but would still have to contend with elevated global energy costs.
The strait is also essential to India's trade with Europe. India's large refining industry sends substantial quantities of diesel, aviation turbine fuel and other petroleum products to European markets through the Red Sea. Container ships carrying pharmaceuticals, textiles, machinery and engineering goods also rely heavily on the Suez route.
The principal alternative would be to send ships around Africa. This would increase the sailing distance between Mumbai and Rotterdam from roughly 15,700 km to around 23,000 km. The additional distance would significantly increase transportation costs for goods travelling to Europe, potentially weakening the competitiveness of Indian exports while making vital imports more expensive.
For India, Bab el-Mandeb is therefore much more than a distant maritime chokepoint located around 3,000 km away. A prolonged disruption could simultaneously increase energy prices, raise shipping costs and reduce the competitiveness of Indian products in European markets. With the Strait of Hormuz already facing pressure, a crisis at the "Gate of Tears" could put further strain on India's energy security as well as its export economy.
