In September 2023, India achieved what many diplomats had considered nearly impossible at the G20 Summit: securing a consensus declaration signed by all members, including Russia and Western nations, despite the Ukraine war being at its peak. Three years later, as India hosts the BRICS Summit, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his diplomatic team face an even more complicated balancing act.
Over two days, the heavily secured Bharat Mandapam will welcome leaders from 11 BRICS nations, including Chinese President Xi Jinping, who is set to visit India for the first time in seven years, and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The gathering will also include countries caught on opposing sides of ongoing conflicts, such as Iran, the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
Adding another layer of complexity, US President Donald Trump will be closely watching the summit. Trump has repeatedly portrayed BRICS as a threat to American economic and strategic interests. Although he will not be physically present, his influence is likely to loom large over the discussions. With India-US relations already facing uncertainty, New Delhi will need to ensure that BRICS decisions do not provoke a negative response from Trump.
For Prime Minister Modi, the weekend is therefore set to involve a significant diplomatic balancing exercise.
A TOUGHER TEST THAN G20
Three years ago, India successfully navigated intense diplomatic tensions to bring G7 nations and the Russia-China grouping together on the issue of Ukraine. The final declaration stopped short of directly blaming Russia but called on all countries to respect territorial integrity and emphasised that the current era should not be defined by war.
The BRICS Summit presents an even more complex situation. The US-Iran conflict is unfolding in the background and has disrupted global energy supplies. At the summit, Iran, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, all directly affected by the conflict, will be brought together.
Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE have faced Iranian retaliatory attacks across the Gulf during Tehran's confrontation with Washington. Just last week, the UAE intercepted a large number of Iranian drones targeting an airbase, while clashes have also intensified between Saudi forces and Iran-backed Houthi fighters.
The conflict has also exposed widening geopolitical divisions. As confidence in the US declines, Saudi Arabia has strengthened its ties with Pakistan and Turkiye through the NATO-style Makkah Joint Defence Agreement.
The summit will place Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, the UAE Crown Prince and the Saudi foreign minister in the same room.
This creates an especially sensitive challenge for India. Iran is expected to push BRICS towards a stronger condemnation of the American military campaign, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE may seek criticism of Iranian attacks throughout the Gulf.
India maintains longstanding cultural and historical connections with Iran, while simultaneously enjoying close strategic partnerships with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Finding common ground among all three will put New Delhi's diplomatic skills to the test.
The challenge was already visible earlier this year when the BRICS Foreign Ministers' meeting in May ended without a joint statement, reportedly because of disagreements between Iran and the UAE over the turmoil in the Middle East.
According to The Indian Express, India has been conducting back-channel discussions alongside Russia and Egypt in an effort to narrow differences between Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE and preserve the possibility of a joint declaration.
THE SHADOW OF BISHKEK
The timing makes India's task even more difficult.
Only two weeks ago, India endorsed the Bishkek declaration at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit. The statement openly condemned attacks on Iran and supported Tehran's right to pursue a peaceful nuclear programme.
This represented a notable change from India's earlier position, as New Delhi had largely remained silent when the conflict began in February.
India now has to ensure that its leadership of BRICS is not viewed as support for one particular side in the geopolitical divide.
Speaking at the India Today BRICS Roundtable, former G20 Sherpa Amitabh Kant said India must behave as a "mature, seasoned player" while holding the BRICS presidency and make certain that the organisation is not perceived as an anti-Western grouping.
Kant stressed that India needs to engage simultaneously with the US, Europe and China.
BJP vice president Ram Madhav expressed a similar view, saying that the world was moving towards a new order and India would need to maintain a balanced position.
COUNTERING THE ANTI-WEST NARRATIVE
India has consistently sought to portray BRICS as an influential platform for the Global South rather than an alliance formed against the West.
Yet Russia and China have increasingly challenged the US-led global system. Russia continues to face extensive Western sanctions, China remains embroiled in a trade conflict with Washington, and Iran has been under US sanctions for decades while now being directly involved in a military confrontation with the US.
This makes the BRICS summit especially significant for India. New Delhi has strengthened its strategic partnership with Washington while continuing to maintain substantial defence and energy relations with Moscow.
India will once again have to manage these competing relationships carefully to avoid upsetting Trump, who has repeatedly expressed doubts about BRICS.
Last year, Trump strongly warned BRICS nations that they could face 100 per cent tariffs if they attempted to introduce a currency intended to replace the US dollar. Later, he threatened further tariffs against countries supporting what he described as BRICS' "anti-American policies".
India has since made it clear that BRICS is not attempting to introduce a new currency to challenge the dollar. Instead, New Delhi has presented the initiative as an effort to facilitate bilateral trade settlements using national currencies.
American economist Jeffrey Sachs told India Today that BRICS should make clear that it is "not anti-West, but anti-imperialism".
CAN BRICS REACH A CONSENSUS?
For decades, India's foreign policy has focused on maintaining relationships with several major power centres without formally siding with any one bloc. As India presides over the 18th BRICS Summit, however, maintaining that balance will be particularly challenging.
On one side are India's strategic ties with the US and its expanding engagement with Western countries such as France and the UK. On the other are Russia and China, which are increasingly attempting to alter the existing global order. Iran adds another complication, as its confrontation with the US has drawn Saudi Arabia and the UAE into the wider crisis.
Former ambassador Anil Trigunayat told India Today that India has successfully dealt with similar diplomatic challenges in the past, including during its G20 presidency and earlier BRICS presidencies.
He said India's diplomatic experience and leadership should allow it to prepare a declaration acceptable to every member, including countries involved in conflicts. He also pointed out that consensus has already been achieved across the other 22 ministerial areas and roughly 100 working groups and subgroups.
India does not have to choose a side at BRICS. Its bigger challenge is ensuring that the final consensus statement does not give the impression that New Delhi has aligned itself with one particular camp. That delicate balancing act is one India will have to manage throughout the summit.
