In mid-September, two announcements from Riyadh and Washington attracted attention because of their timing. Saudi Arabia's energy minister announced the discovery of around 110 million tonnes of ore containing promising uranium concentrations and significant quantities of rare earth minerals near Medina. About three days later, the US State Department informed Congress that it had approved a potential $24.3 billion sale of 48 Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II fighter jets to Saudi Arabia. If completed, the deal would mark the first time an Arab country could gain access to America's most advanced fifth-generation stealth fighter.
The timing has raised questions, particularly amid Saudi Arabia's confrontation with Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, Washington's reluctance to intervene militarily in support of Riyadh and reports of possible US-Houthi contacts. This has led to speculation over whether Saudi Arabia is using its economic and strategic influence to secure greater support from the Donald Trump administration, raising questions about whether the arrangement represents strategic diplomacy or a transactional bargain.
The proposed package consists of 48 conventional-takeoff-and-landing F-35 aircraft, 49 Pratt & Whitney F135 engines, including 48 for installation and one spare, along with secure communications equipment, electronic warfare capabilities, training, spare parts and logistical support. The State Department described the sale as important for improving the security of a major non-NATO ally, strengthening homeland defence and enhancing interoperability, while maintaining that it would not change the military balance in the region.
The wording from the State Department appears carefully framed to account for America's commitment to maintaining Israel's qualitative military edge in the Middle East. The US and Israel have used F-35 Lightning II stealth fighters in more than 3,000 combat strikes against Iran this year, although one of the aircraft was reportedly struck by Iranian fire.
The Saudi Embassy in Washington welcomed the proposed sale, describing it as a reflection of the longstanding Saudi-US strategic partnership and the continued expansion of defence cooperation. The embassy said security cooperation between the two countries had contributed to regional stability, strengthened collective defence capabilities and advanced their shared security interests.
Saudi Arabia's reported withdrawal from China's digital currency initiative has added further speculation about Riyadh's strategic direction.
A Financial Times report published on Sunday said Saudi Arabia had pulled out of the Beijing-led mBridge digital currency project. The initiative uses blockchain technology to allow central banks to conduct cross-border payments directly, potentially reducing dependence on traditional dollar-based systems such as SWIFT.
The Saudi Central Bank, or SAMA, confirmed that it had stopped participating in the project after completing a planned technical trial in May 2025. Sources cited by the Financial Times said Riyadh wanted to avoid attracting attention or facing possible pressure from Washington, although another source told the newspaper that SAMA was still working with the programme discreetly.
The sequence of developments — the uranium discovery, reports of US-Houthi discussions, Washington's approval of the F-35 sale and Saudi Arabia's reported departure from the China-led digital currency project — has prompted questions over whether Riyadh is pursuing a high-stakes form of transactional diplomacy.
Saudi Arabia has been seeking F-35 aircraft for years. Earlier efforts under previous US administrations stalled amid concerns about preserving Israel's military advantage in the region. Trump had already indicated openness to such a deal in May last year, alongside a nearly $142 billion defence package described by the White House as the largest agreement of its kind.
The latest move therefore continues a longer trajectory, even though the threats Saudi Arabia currently faces from the Houthis and the blockade around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait are not problems that advanced stealth fighters can directly resolve.
SAUDI'S URANIUM DISCOVERY AND NUCLEAR AMBITIONS AMID REGIONAL CHAOS
Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman announced the uranium discovery at the International Atomic Energy Agency's General Conference in Vienna.
Geological research at the Jabal Sayid project in the Medina region identified an estimated 110 million tonnes of ore containing significant rare earth concentrations, particularly heavy rare earth elements, along with promising levels of uranium. The figure refers to the total amount of ore rather than refined uranium or pure rare-earth material. The amount that can ultimately be recovered will depend on the grade of the deposits, extraction costs and processing requirements.
Even so, the announcement is significant.
It follows a US-Saudi framework for civilian nuclear cooperation agreed in July 2026. The arrangement creates an avenue for American companies to participate in developing Saudi Arabia's civilian nuclear programme and, importantly, provides Riyadh with a potential path towards domestic uranium enrichment under agreed safeguards.
Saudi Arabia has been pursuing energy diversification through its Vision 2030 programme, seeking to reduce its dependence on oil while expanding its mining sector and developing capabilities in critical minerals and nuclear energy.
The uranium discovery has also raised questions about the possible dual-use implications of the resource, particularly amid continuing regional concerns surrounding Iran's nuclear programme. Riyadh maintains that its nuclear ambitions are civilian in nature and will operate under international safeguards. Israel remains the only country in the Middle East known to possess nuclear weapons.
The discovery also comes as competition between the US and China intensifies. Saudi-China trade exceeded $100 billion annually during 2023-25, making China the kingdom's largest trading partner. Chinese foreign direct investment stock in Saudi Arabia increased by 29% to $8.2 billion in 2024. In the military sphere, China has also assisted Saudi Arabia with solid-fuel ballistic missile production since the early 2020s.
THE LATEST HOUTHI CHALLENGE AND US RELUCTANCE
Saudi Arabia's most immediate military challenge is not a sophisticated aerial conflict but the Iran-backed Houthi movement in Yemen, which has continued to pose a security threat using drones, missiles and irregular warfare tactics.
The Houthis have attempted drone attacks targeting Mecca, attacked Saudi-linked shipping in the Red Sea and recently launched a ground offensive that captured important sections of Yemen's Red Sea coastline, including territory controlling approaches to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Saudi-backed Yemeni forces have struggled to regain these areas.
Washington has shown little inclination to escalate militarily on Saudi Arabia's behalf. Reuters reported that US officials met Houthi representatives at the US Embassy in Muscat, Oman, during the mid-September weekend, with the talks facilitated by Oman.
According to reports, the Houthi representatives reaffirmed their commitment to the 2025 ceasefire with Washington, promised not to attack American or Israeli vessels and indicated that Saudi-linked shipping would continue to be considered a target.
US Vice President JD Vance publicly acknowledged that direct discussions with the Houthis had taken place.
The situation has prompted commentary from defence observers.
Defence expert Lt Gen DP Pandey suggested on X that Washington's reluctance to assist Saudi Arabia against the Houthis could have encouraged Riyadh to offer the US a $24.3 billion F-35 contract, while noting that the aircraft would not immediately provide much utility against the Houthis.
Another assessment circulating on X questioned the practical value of F-35s against Houthi fighters, arguing that the conflict involves irregular forces using relatively simple weapons, drones and guerrilla tactics, rather than a sophisticated conventional air force.
There is a clear operational distinction.
Fifth-generation stealth aircraft are primarily designed to penetrate advanced integrated air-defence networks and conduct deep strikes against sophisticated adversaries. Against dispersed irregular fighters operating with low-signature equipment, man-portable weapons, drones and unconventional tactics, their direct operational utility is considerably more limited.
IS THE F-35 DEAL STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP OR TRANSACTIONAL DIPLOMACY?
The State Department's approval has now placed the proposed sale into a 30-day congressional review period, during which opposition is possible.
The 2018 killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi remains a significant concern for some US lawmakers. Following Khashoggi's death inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, members of both major US political parties had called for restrictions on arms sales to Riyadh.
Saudi Arabia's role in the Yemen war has also remained controversial, with critics accusing the kingdom of conducting an air campaign that contributed to substantial civilian casualties and humanitarian suffering.
More recent intelligence concerns focus on the possibility that China could gain access to sensitive F-35 technology through espionage or through its expanding military and security ties with Saudi Arabia. A Defense Intelligence Agency assessment reportedly highlighted Chinese military access to certain Saudi facilities, the use of Chinese telecommunications equipment from companies including Huawei and ZTE within Saudi infrastructure, and questions over whether secure locations housing F-35 systems could be sufficiently protected.
Despite those concerns, the approval process has continued.
Some online commentators have interpreted the broader sequence of developments in strongly critical terms, arguing that the Trump administration is advancing the F-35 sale despite intelligence concerns.
Arms transfers have historically been an important component of US foreign policy, and Saudi Arabia has long ranked among the biggest purchasers of American weapons. However, the timing of the uranium announcement, Houthi advances and reported US-Houthi discussions, followed by the F-35 approval and Saudi Arabia's reported withdrawal from the China-backed digital currency initiative, has encouraged speculation that Riyadh may be leveraging its financial resources, mineral assets and defence purchases to secure greater strategic engagement from the Trump administration.
For now, the sequence of events has at least created the appearance of a broader strategic bargain in which Saudi Arabia has significant economic and strategic assets to offer while committing billions of dollars to America's most advanced fighter aircraft.
