Two by-election victories have strengthened Tamil Nadu Chief Minister C Joseph Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) in the Assembly, but the party still lacks the numbers to govern independently. Even if TVK wins all five Assembly seats where by-elections are pending, the survival of its minority government will continue to depend on support from other parties, particularly the Congress, which has five MLAs. Managing coalition partners will therefore remain a key responsibility for Chief Minister Vijay.
In Tamil Nadu's political landscape, winning two seats can carry significance beyond the addition of two legislators. For Vijay, the victories in Dharapuram and Madurantakam offer an opportunity to reinforce a government that began its tenure with a fractured mandate, despite TVK emerging as the single-largest party.
Both constituencies have returned to TVK after their former AIADMK legislators resigned, joined Vijay's party and contested the by-elections on its symbol. The victories have increased the ruling party's Assembly strength from 107 to 109.
Maragatham Kumaravel and P Sathyabama had won the Madurantakam and Dharapuram constituencies, respectively, as AIADMK candidates in the 2026 Assembly elections. Both subsequently resigned as MLAs and joined TVK. They have now won their seats again, this time contesting under the party's whistle symbol.
However, the overall composition of the Tamil Nadu Assembly presents a more complicated picture.
A simple majority in the 234-member Assembly requires 118 seats. Even after the two bypoll victories, TVK remains nine seats short of that threshold. Five constituencies — Tiruchirappalli East, Karur, Viralimalai, Perundurai and Ambasamudram — remain vacant, with by-elections pending due to legal proceedings before the Madras High Court.
Given Vijay's popularity in the state, TVK could potentially win all five remaining contests. Even then, its strength would rise only to 114, leaving it four seats short of a majority. Vijay would therefore continue to rely on parties supporting his government, especially the Congress, which has five MLAs and is part of the ruling coalition.
There is, however, an important distinction in the Assembly arithmetic. If TVK wins all five vacant seats and its other supporting parties — the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), Communist Party of India (CPI) and CPI(M) — continue backing the government, their combined strength could take it beyond the majority threshold even without Congress. The Congress is therefore not indispensable under every possible numerical scenario, although its continued support remains politically important for Vijay's government.
The bypoll results have improved Vijay's position, but they have not eliminated the need to maintain unity among his allies.
TWO SEATS PROVIDE A LARGER BUFFER FOR THE VIJAY GOVERNMENT
The contests in Dharapuram and Madurantakam were important because they tested whether the two former AIADMK legislators could retain their constituencies after switching to TVK.
P Sathyabama won in Dharapuram, while K Maragatham Kumaravel emerged victorious in Madurantakam. Both had previously represented these constituencies as AIADMK MLAs before resigning and joining Vijay's party. Their victories have enabled TVK to turn the defections into additional Assembly seats rather than simply gaining the political support of former legislators.
The results have also provided Vijay's government with an early electoral boost. The by-elections took place only a few months after TVK assumed power, making them a significant test of whether the party could sustain its electoral appeal beyond the original Assembly polls.
For TVK, the victories have strengthened its position in the legislature and underscored the political importance of the leaders who switched sides.
WHY CONGRESS CONTINUES TO MATTER TO VIJAY'S GOVERNMENT
The Congress's role can be traced to the negotiations that followed the April Assembly elections. TVK emerged as the largest party with 108 seats, but Vijay chose to retain Perambur and resign from Tiruchirappalli East, bringing the party's effective strength down to 107.
The Congress, with five MLAs, extended support to Vijay, ending its long-standing alliance with the DMK. The VCK and IUML also backed the government, while the CPI and CPI(M) extended their support. Together, these parties enabled Vijay to assume office despite TVK falling short of a majority on its own.
Congress's significance extends beyond its numerical strength. As a national party with an established organisational network and a role in the broader opposition alliance, its decision to support Vijay after campaigning alongside the DMK marked a major shift in Tamil Nadu's political alignments.
"Vijay needs Congress more than Congress needs Vijay in Tamil Nadu," social and political expert Ravindran Duraisamy told India Today Digital while assessing the TVK government's first 150 days.
Duraisamy said Congress and the Left parties helped prevent the BJP-led NDA from gaining power in Tamil Nadu by supporting Vijay instead of allowing the AIADMK-led formation to give the BJP greater political influence in the state.
The Congress's post-election decision to back TVK also highlighted the limitations of established political alliances. After campaigning with the DMK, the national party chose to support Vijay following the fractured mandate, leading its former ally to accuse it of betrayal.
For Vijay, the arrangement has created a path to power without requiring TVK to secure an independent majority. For Congress, it provides a place in the new governing coalition, including representation in the Cabinet. The partnership is consequently shaped not just by the immediate Assembly numbers but also by the political decisions both parties made after the election.
VIJAY'S MINORITY GOVERNMENT DEPENDS ON NEGOTIATIONS
The two bypoll victories have strengthened TVK, but the government's long-term stability will depend on more than its electoral performance. Vijay will have to preserve the backing of parties whose interests and political calculations may differ from those of his own party.
Congress, meanwhile, will need to balance the advantages of participating in the government against the risks of remaining associated with a relatively new political formation. The VCK, IUML and Left parties also retain political leverage because their support helps the government maintain a majority.
For now, the by-election victories have given Vijay greater room to manoeuvre. They have also demonstrated TVK's ability to win contests after the initial Assembly election. Nevertheless, the party remains short of a majority on its own, and elections in five constituencies are still pending.
