According to recent polling data, Rishi Sunak and 15 of his cabinet colleagues could lose their seats in a general election "wipeout," according to The Independent.
Senior members of the Conservative Party (Tory), such as Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab, and Health Secretary Steve Barclay, are at risk of losing the upcoming election in 2024, according to an exclusive seat-by-seat study.
According to the Focaldata polling for Best for Britain, the list also includes the Foreign Secretary James Cleverly, the Defense Secretary Ben Wallace, the Business Secretary Grant Shapps, the Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, and the Environment Secretary Therese Coffey.
According to the poll, only five cabinet members—Jeremy Hunt, Suella Braverman, Michael Gove, Nadhim Zawawi, and Kemi Badenoch—would be protected.
Except for Raab, who would lose to the Liberal Democrats in Esher and Walton, and Scottish Secretary Alister Jack, who is headed for defeat by the SNP in Dumfries and Galloway, all other Tory MPs in the current cabinet face losing their seats to Labour.
Labor is on track to win all ten seats, according to a new analysis shared with The Independent on 10 important "bellwether" seats, ones that have regularly supported the winning party in recent years.
Sunak's cabinet "deserves nothing less than a wipeout," declared Naomi Smith, CEO of Best for Britain, an organization that advocates for liberal ideals and tighter relations with the EU.
But hesitant voters could give them a lifeline, so Keir Starmer must be cautious not to take Labour support for granted and avoid alienating it by placing needless constraints on Brexit.
According to Smith, the Tories still have a chance to make the election close due to the high percentage of undecided voters. Despite the dismal polls for Sunak's party, Best for Britain's analysis has shown that Labour's enormous lead over the Tories may not be as secure as originally believed.
According to the group's Wavering Wall study, a sizable percentage of voters who respond "don't know" in polls are actually leaning heavily toward the Conservative Party and might yet support Sunak's group in the upcoming general election.
Labor is on track to win 517 seats at the next election, according to Focaldata's multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) polls. But when the influence of the "don't know" voters are taken into account, the victory is reduced to only 353 seats, a majority of less than 60.
Additionally, the new seat-by-seat research reveals that 12 of the 16 cabinet ministers who are projected to lose their seats in the general election, including Sunak, Raab, Cleverly, and Barclay, would maintain their positions after accounting for "don't know" voters.
After the "don't know" voters are taken into account, only Wallace, labor and pensions minister Mel Stride, transport secretary Mark Harper, and Welsh secretary David TC Davies are likely to lose their seats.
At the beginning of 2023, Sunak is battling to turn around the prospects of the Tories as the majority of recent surveys show Labour with leads of almost 20 points. A tiny poll boost after Sunak replaced Liz Truss has "flatlined," according to polling analysts.
After accounting for the "don't know" voters, only Wallace, Mel Stride, Mark Harper, and David TC Davies, the secretaries for employment and pensions, transportation, and Wales, are likely to see their seats lost.
Beginning in 2023, Sunak is battling to turn around the prospects of the Conservative Party as the majority of recent surveys show Labour with leads of roughly 20 points. After Sunak replaced Liz Truss in the polls, there was a tiny uptick, but that has now "flatlined," according to polling experts.
A grassroots Tory organization composed of Johnson's allies plans to start a "Momentum-style" campaign to give members complete control over candidate selection.
The Conservative Democratic Organisation (CDO), which is led by Johnson donor Peter Cruddas, is also pushing for a rule reform that would allow any MP with support from only 15% of their peers to run for the leadership.
The "key" to having any hope of winning the election, according to Chris Hopkins, director of Savanta, is for Sunak to put the Tories ahead of Labour on economic competence.
He is not as well-liked or despised as Keir Starmer, which is also helpful. Although the "not Liz Truss" bounce has worn off, he now needs to go to work, he told The Independent.
