The United Nations warned on Wednesday that the five years from 2023 to 2027 will be the warmest on record due to a combination of greenhouse gases and El Nino that will cause temperatures to soar. According to the UN, there is a two-thirds likelihood that one of the next five years would see global temperatures exceed the more aggressive objective outlined in the Paris climate agreements.
The eight hottest years ever measured fell between 2015 and 2022, but as climate change quickens, temperatures are expected to rise much more.
The WMO stated that there is a 98% chance that at least one of the upcoming five years and the five-year span overall will be the warmest on record.
Countries agreed to limit global warming to "well below" two degrees Celsius over normal levels estimated between 1850 and 1900 -- and 1.5C if possible -- as part of the 2015 Paris Agreement.
The average worldwide temperature in 2022 was 1.15C higher than it was between 1850 and 1900.
With a range of 1.1C to 1.8C predicted for each of those five years, the WMO stated that there is a 66% risk that annual global surface temperatures will exceed 1.5C over pre-industrial levels for at least one of the years 2023–2027.
"In the upcoming months, a rising El Nino is anticipated to develop, and this, along with human-caused climate change, will push global temperatures into unprecedented territory.
The effects on human health, food security, water management, and the environment will be significant. We have to be ready. The WMO's principal center for yearly to ten-year climate predictions is the national weather service of Great Britain, the Met Office.
The Met Office reported that while there is a 32% possibility that the entire five-year mean will exceed 1.5C, there is a 66 percent chance that one year between 2023 and 2027 will do so.
According to Met Office expert scientist Leon Hermanson, "Global mean temperatures are predicted to continue rising, pushing us further and further away from the climate we are used to."
With the exception of Alaska, South Africa, South Asia, and some areas of Australia, temperatures in 2023 are predicted to be higher than the average for the period between 1991 and 2020 in almost all regions, according to the WMO.
