Chinese President Xi Jinping's life trajectory has been characterized by stark contrasts. Although born into a life of opulence, his family experienced the tumultuous purges of China's Cultural Revolution, which forced a young Xi to endure six years of laborious toil in the rural fields. These formative struggles, however, pale in comparison to the monumental challenges faced by the current all-supreme leader.
In a surprising turn of events, Xi has chosen to abstain from attending the G20 Summit in New Delhi, leaving experts pondering the exact rationale behind China's decision to dispatch Premier Li Qiang in his stead. The primary catalyst behind this choice remains elusive, as analysts grapple with the intricate dynamics at play.
Certainly, it is undeniable that China's relationship with India has been marked by frostiness, primarily stemming from the border clashes that erupted in May 2020. It is plausible that the Chinese government's decision to delegate Premier Li Qiang instead of President Xi serves as a diplomatic signal. However, the Chinese government officially maintains its readiness to collaborate with all stakeholders to ensure the success of the global event in New Delhi.
Moreover, it is worth considering whether President Xi seeks to avoid the potentially contentious atmosphere of the G20. Numerous member nations have notably "hardened their positions on China" over the past decade, as articulated by Paul Haenle, director of the Carnegie China think-tank. In essence, it has become a challenging arena for Xi to navigate.
Another hypothesis suggested by experts is that Xi Jinping's absence from the India-hosted G20 event may be attributable to mounting domestic challenges within China itself. Is it possible that Xi prefers to remain within the confines of his home turf, where the true source of his troubles lies?
Alfred Wu, an associate professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, posits that Xi's overwhelming focus on domestic issues may preclude foreign travel. Wu underscores that Xi has been setting his own agenda, prioritizing national security as his paramount concern. As a result, he remains in China, awaiting visits from foreign leaders rather than venturing abroad himself.
Wu further highlights that this overemphasis on security has strained China's diplomatic relationships and hindered efforts to revitalize its economy. China's economic landscape is currently riddled with challenges, representing one of Xi's foremost concerns.
China's economy has not fully recovered from the repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic, with households spending less, factories operating at reduced capacities, and businesses displaying cautious investment behavior. Exports have also experienced a decline, with August witnessing an 8.8 percent year-on-year drop in exports and a 7.3 percent contraction in imports.
The situation is compounded by a surge in youth unemployment, prompting Beijing to cease disclosing pertinent data. Concurrently, property prices are plummeting, leading to bankruptcy declarations by prominent developers, thereby imperiling the real estate sector.
These economic hurdles could potentially coalesce into a perilous confluence that threatens China's four-decade-long growth model. Economists assert that China's excessive reliance on the property sector, coupled with stringent COVID-19 policies, has significantly impeded economic growth.
Additionally, China grapples with mounting debt levels, a long-standing concern among economists. The country's total debt-to-GDP ratio reached a staggering 279 percent in the first quarter of 2023, according to Bloomberg's analysis. Beijing's extensive infrastructure spending has driven this surge in debt, exacerbating the predicament.
Furthermore, the collapse of the housing bubble, commencing with the Evergrande crisis, has added to Xi's woes. A substantial 25 percent of China's economy hinges on its property market.
Compounding these challenges is the China+1 strategy adopted by major foreign brands, which are diversifying their operations beyond China. This strategy is driven by factors such as rising labor costs, trade tensions with the United States, and concerns about China's political and economic stability.
Xi Jinping, who ascended to the presidency of China in 2012 and has been re-elected twice, most recently in March of the current year, wields a firm grip on power. In 2018, the National People's Congress abolished term limits for China's president and vice president, thereby enabling Xi to remain in power indefinitely.
However, uncertainties persist, including concerns about purges within China. In August, China executed a major reshuffling of leadership within the People's Liberation Army's Rocket Force, an elite unit overseeing China's nuclear arsenal. This move, which saw the dismissal of General Li Yuchao and his deputy General Liu Guangbin, sparked considerable speculation. These officers had vanished from the public eye for an extended period, prompting their removal by Xi.
Notably, the PLA Rocket Force plays a pivotal role in managing China's nuclear capabilities, and the shake-up was described as the most significant unplanned leadership reshuffle in Beijing's military ranks in nearly a decade.
Lyle Morris, a foreign policy and national security expert at the Asia Society Policy Institute, opines that while President Xi Jinping has unquestionably solidified his control over the PLA, concerns about corruption within the ranks persist. Xi has signaled that absolute loyalty to the party remains an objective yet to be fully achieved.
In summary, President Xi Jinping's decision to abstain from the G20 Summit in India underscores a complex web of factors, including diplomatic considerations, domestic challenges, and economic pressures, all of which contribute to the intricate landscape that defines China's current state of affairs.
