The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted above-normal rainfall for India during the upcoming monsoon season. According to IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, historical data from 1951 to 2023 indicates that India experienced above-normal monsoon rainfall on nine occasions when La Nina followed the El Nino event.
During a press conference, Mohapatra stated that India is likely to receive rainfall estimated at 106 percent of the long-period average (87 cm) during the four-month monsoon season from June to September.
In 2023, India experienced below-average cumulative rainfall of 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm, which coincided with an El Nino year. El Nino conditions typically lead to weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India. Currently, moderate El Nino conditions are observed over the equatorial Pacific region.
However, the latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) and other climate model forecasts suggest a weakening of El Nino conditions to neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in the early part of the monsoon season. La Nina conditions are expected to develop during the latter part of the monsoon season.
The IMD plans to issue updated rainfall forecasts for the monsoon season by the last week of May. The southwest monsoon, which accounts for about 70 percent of India's annual rainfall, is crucial for the agriculture sector, which contributes approximately 14 percent to the country's GDP.
