India’s extension of the airspace ban on Pakistani flights until June 23 underscores a significant and escalating freeze in Indo-Pak relations, triggered by the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack, which killed 26 civilians. Here's a breakdown of how this deepening standoff is unfolding and affecting both countries:
Latest Developments:
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India’s NOTAM Issued (May 24):
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All aircraft leased, owned, or operated by Pakistani airlines or military are barred from entering Indian airspace.
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This includes commercial and defense flights, a rare step that intensifies the diplomatic message.
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Reciprocal Measures by Pakistan:
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Pakistan had already closed its airspace for Indian flights on April 23, a day after the Pahalgam attack.
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It extended this ban by another month earlier this week, as per media reports.
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Both bans comply with ICAO norms, which limit airspace closures to one month at a time, but they are clearly being renewed monthly in retaliation cycles.
Military and Diplomatic Context:
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India's 'Operation Sindoor' on May 7 saw precision strikes on Pakistani terror launchpads, which India described as retribution for the Pahalgam killings.
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The closure of Indian airspace is part of a broader multi-layered diplomatic and strategic offensive:
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Indus Waters Treaty suspended — a foundational agreement between the two countries since 1960.
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Attari-Wagah border sealed, cutting off the only land crossing between the two nations.
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Pakistani nationals in India ordered to leave within a fixed timeline.
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All Pakistani visas revoked, and Saarc visa exemptions for Pakistanis cancelled.
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Pakistan’s Retaliation:
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Border closure at Wagah mirrored India’s action.
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Suspension of Saarc visas for Indians, freezing regional people-to-people movement.
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Citing the Simla Agreement (1972), Pakistan warned that all bilateral treaties are now in suspended animation unless India complies with “international law and UN resolutions on Kashmir.”
Broader Implications:
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Civil Aviation Disruption: Airlines must reroute flights to avoid the banned airspace, increasing fuel costs and flight durations, especially on Gulf and Europe-Asia routes.
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Diplomatic Fallout: The tit-for-tat escalation signals a deep diplomatic freeze, impacting:
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Water sharing (IWT)
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Civilian movement and trade
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Regional cooperation (Saarc)
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Risk of Further Escalation: While both nations have avoided full-scale war, the layered suspension of air, land, and diplomatic channels leaves little room for dialogue, making miscalculation risks higher.
Summary
India’s decision to extend the airspace ban is more than a civil aviation issue—it reflects a coordinated, multi-domain response to the Pahalgam attack and broader concerns over Pakistan’s alleged continued support for cross-border terrorism. With dialogue stalled, treaties suspended, and borders sealed, the two nuclear-armed neighbors are now in one of their most tense standoffs in years. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether this hardened posture deepens further or opens a pathway for crisis de-escalation.
