Since India put the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) on hold following the April 22 terror attack in Pahalgam, the suspension has led to measurable impacts on Pakistan, both strategically and operationally, particularly concerning water flows in the Chenab and Jhelum rivers.
Key Observations:
1. Operational Changes at Indian Dams
India appears to be using the pause in treaty obligations to exercise greater control over river flows from its side of the border:
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Flushing Operations: Satellite imagery and water inflow data show that India has begun force-flushing silt from dams such as Baglihar (Chenab) and Kishanganga (Jhelum tributary) with increased frequency, compared to the usual once-a-year flushing.
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This process involves filling dams to capacity, then opening sluice gates to release sediment-laden water. This enhances hydroelectric efficiency and clears reservoir sedimentation but leads to sudden water surges downstream in Pakistan.
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For example, Baglihar Dam was observed in full flushing mode on May 1, followed by closures and then sudden releases on May 11 and again the next week.
2. Water Flow Volatility in Pakistan
Pakistan’s Indus River System Authority (IRSA) data reflects abrupt, unseasonal fluctuations:
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At Marala Dam (Chenab in Pakistan):
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Outflow dropped from 14,800 cusecs to 8,087 (May 2),
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Spiked to 55,148 cusecs (May 3),
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Dropped again to 3,761 cusecs (May 6),
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Peaked again to 20,648 (May 20).
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This volatility hints at uncoordinated dam releases by India and limited downstream regulation capacity in Pakistan.
3. Limited Impact on Mangla (Jhelum) – For Now
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Mangla Dam, the largest reservoir on the Jhelum, has seen less dramatic changes, likely due to Kishanganga’s smaller storage and run-of-the-river design.
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However, periods of increased inflow point to upstream interventions affecting the system.
4. Strategic Implications for Pakistan
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The increased flushing and withholding of flows potentially disrupt:
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Irrigation schedules,
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Canal water availability,
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Power generation,
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And even sediment blockage in canals.
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Before the IWT suspension, Pakistan routinely objected to such Indian dam operations under treaty terms.
5. India’s Long-Term Water Utilisation Plans
India seems to be using this window to push forward strategic infrastructure:
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Plans for four more hydroelectric plants on western rivers,
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Revival of the Tulbul navigation project on the Jhelum,
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Enhancements to Wular Lake, flood control measures,
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Lift irrigation and canal modernisation (Ranbir and Pratap Canals),
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All intended to maximize water use for Jammu and Kashmir.
Diplomatic Developments
Pakistan has now expressed willingness to resume talks on the IWT, but India remains firm:
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External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has stated the treaty suspension will continue until Pakistan “credibly and irreversibly” ends cross-border terrorism.
Summary
The IWT suspension has given India tactical leverage in managing water flows, causing inconsistent and at times disruptive flow patterns downstream in Pakistan. While no full-scale water cutoff has occurred, India’s evolving dam operations and its acceleration of long-delayed water infrastructure projects are reshaping the water-sharing equation, with geopolitical overtones tied directly to security issues. The broader implications could push Pakistan to renegotiate the treaty terms or seek international mediation, though India seems unlikely to budge until there’s a shift on the terrorism front.
