Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is facing unprecedented pressure, both externally from Israel and internally amid speculation about his possible removal or death. For over three decades, he has ruled Iran as the country’s most powerful figure, with total authority over its armed forces, judiciary, foreign policy, and intelligence services. But as Israel escalates its military campaign and names him directly as a target, the conversation has shifted toward what a post-Khamenei Iran might look like.
In a high-profile interview, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu openly suggested that eliminating Khamenei could end the decades-long conflict between the two nations. Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz went a step further, warning that Khamenei might meet a fate similar to Saddam Hussein. This comes amid reports that former US President Donald Trump had previously blocked an Israeli plan to assassinate the Iranian leader. Netanyahu, now back in power, has defended the idea, claiming that it would not inflame tensions, but instead bring them to an end.
Against this backdrop, the question of succession looms large. Khamenei’s most likely successor is believed to be his second son, Mojtaba Khamenei. A cleric with strong ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and deep influence behind the scenes, Mojtaba is seen as someone who could preserve the core ideology of the Islamic Republic while maintaining continuity.
Another strong contender is Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, who currently holds powerful clerical and institutional positions, including roles in the Assembly of Experts and the Guardian Council. His close proximity to the establishment, especially in Qom, makes him a credible candidate.
Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei, Iran’s judiciary chief and a former intelligence minister, also ranks high among potential successors due to his decades of service in Iran’s security and legal apparatus.
Additional figures such as Mohammad Golpayegani, Ali Akbar Velayati, Kamal Kharazi, and Ali Larijani bring a mix of clerical, diplomatic, and political experience, and could become compromise candidates in case of internal power struggles.
The Assembly of Experts, a body of 88 clerics elected by the public but heavily vetted, will play the key role in choosing Khamenei’s successor. The process is secretive and opaque. A simple majority is needed, but in practice, the assembly tends to seek broad consensus to ensure regime stability.
Khamenei’s deep distrust of the West, especially the United States, remains one of the defining features of his leadership. Although he allowed indirect negotiations to resume with the US under Trump’s second term, he publicly warned that Washington would not keep its word. Talks scheduled for June 15, 2025, to resume dialogue on Iran’s nuclear program were derailed after Israel launched heavy airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 13.
Now, with war underway and several of Khamenei’s close allies already killed, attention is returning to his own fate. Whether he survives this war or not, the future of Iran's leadership has never looked more uncertain.
