Does Israel's Rising Lion symbolize an uprising among Iranians


On June 12, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu placed a handwritten note at the Western Wall in Jerusalem. The note, revealed only after Israel's major strikes on Iran, read: "The people shall rise up as a great lion. He shall not lie down until he eats the prey and drinks the blood of the slain." While many initially saw it as a call for Israelis to rise against Iran, some now interpret it as a sign of support for the Iranian people to rise against their own regime.

Just a day later, on June 13, Israel launched “Operation Rising Lion” — a large-scale preemptive strike involving over 200 warplanes and Mossad-controlled drones targeting Iranian nuclear sites and military facilities across cities including Tehran, Natanz, and Esfahan. On June 17, Israel claimed to have killed Iranian military commander Ali Shadmani in a targeted airstrike, though Iran has not confirmed his death.

Amid the military escalation, Netanyahu hinted that Israel’s goals may go beyond neutralising threats — possibly aiming at regime change. “We have indications that senior leaders in Iran are already packing their bags,” he said.

Some Israeli and Iranian voices have started framing Operation Rising Lion as a symbolic gesture to inspire Iranians to reclaim their country. Iranian analyst Navid Mohebbi wrote that “perhaps today, it is Israel’s historic turn to help the Iranian people win their own freedom.” Others pointed out that the name “Rising Lion” connects two cultures of strength — the Persian and the Jewish — and alludes to shared historical moments, such as Cyrus the Great freeing the Jewish people.

Inside Iran, frustration with the regime has been growing, especially among the youth. The 2022 Mahsa Amini protests highlighted this anger, fueled by repression, economic hardship, and lost trust in the regime’s authority. But real change remains difficult. The regime’s security forces are strong, opposition groups are fragmented, and much of the organised dissent operates from exile.

Former Israeli security officials believe Israel may be receiving indirect help from Iranian locals and possibly even parts of Iran’s conventional military. Exiled Iranian opposition leaders like Reza Pahlavi and Maryam Rajavi have backed the strikes and urged Iranians to act.

Yet, analysts warn that while airstrikes may weaken a regime, they rarely topple it. Without wider international military involvement, like a full-scale invasion, the fall of the Islamic Republic seems unlikely in the near term. And even if it collapses, the outcome is uncertain — potentially leading to chaos, civil war, or a new authoritarian order.

As Israel’s operation continues, the question remains open: will the Iranian people rise, and if they do, what comes next?


 

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