Pakistan has long struggled to meet its energy demands through domestic production, and recent data reveals a continued downward trend in the country's crude oil output. In 2019, Pakistan managed to produce approximately 89,030 barrels of crude oil per day. However, projections indicate that by 2025, this figure will fall to just 64,262 barrels per day, marking a significant decline in self-sufficiency. This decline comes despite multiple initiatives and investments intended to revitalize the country's energy sector. The dwindling production levels have forced Pakistan to increase its reliance on imported oil, putting a strain on the national economy and raising questions about long-term energy security.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement about developing what he described as Pakistan’s “massive oil reserves” sparked both curiosity and skepticism. His claim seemed to suggest that Pakistan possessed untapped resources significant enough to attract foreign investment and reshape its energy profile. However, an examination of available data and official government assessments offers a more nuanced view. Pakistan's Ministry of Energy, in collaboration with the now-defunct USAID, conducted a study in 2020 that estimated the total potential of oil and gas resources trapped in shale formations. According to the study, the country had 3,778 trillion cubic feet of gas in-place, 188 TCF technically recoverable, and 95 TCF considered risked recoverable. As for shale oil, estimates stood at 2,323 billion stock tank barrels (BSTB) in-place, with 58 BSTB technically recoverable and 14 BSTB considered realistically extractable.
Understanding these figures requires unpacking some technical terms. “In-place” quantities refer to the total theoretical volume of oil or gas present underground. “Technically recoverable” reserves represent those that current technology could potentially extract, assuming ideal conditions. However, “risked recoverable” reserves are a more conservative estimate, factoring in geological, economic, and operational risks that may limit actual recovery. While the numbers sound impressive at first glance, they don't guarantee economic viability or successful extraction. This disparity explains the gap between expectations and actual outcomes in oil exploration projects in the country.
Further complicating the narrative, a separate claim about the discovery of vast reserves in Pakistan’s territorial waters emerged in local media in 2024. According to reports, a senior security official cited data from 3D seismic mapping—a preliminary method used to detect subsurface formations—as evidence of possible offshore oil wealth. However, such mapping only represents the earliest step in exploration and often fails to translate into commercial discoveries. Past experiences support this caution. For instance, in 2019, ExxonMobil—along with other major players like ENI, PPL, and OGDC—undertook deep-sea drilling at a site named Kekra-1. Despite reaching depths of over 5,500 meters, the operation failed to yield any viable oil or gas, and the project was eventually abandoned. ExxonMobil’s short-lived return to Pakistan after nearly a decade highlighted the challenges of offshore drilling and the uncertainty surrounding resource assessments.
Pakistan’s energy outlook continues to be marked by setbacks, as noted in reports by the Petroleum Institute of Pakistan (PIP). In its 2020 energy outlook, the PIP expressed concern over aging infrastructure, the rapid depletion of indigenous oil and gas sources, and the country’s increasing dependence on costly imports. These systemic issues have deterred long-term investments and driven international oil companies to reconsider their presence in Pakistan. Between 2021 and 2024, four major companies exited the market. Italy’s ENI left in 2021 after two decades, and Kuwait’s Foreign Petroleum Exploration Company divested its assets to local firm Pakistan Exploration Limited in late 2024. In 2023, Shell sold its controlling interest in Shell Pakistan, followed by TotalEnergies’ announcement of its exit later the same year.
Security concerns have also played a role in diminishing investor confidence. Many of Pakistan’s known and potential oil reserves are located in the province of Balochistan, where persistent ethnic insurgency and regional instability continue to pose serious threats to exploration and operational activities. This volatile environment has not only discouraged new foreign investments but has also hindered the successful execution of existing projects. As a result, the promise of developing Pakistan’s so-called “massive reserves” remains largely unfulfilled, overshadowed by logistical, technical, and geopolitical challenges that cannot be ignored.
