The recent remarks by former U.S. President Donald Trump have sparked significant attention, particularly in light of his statement claiming that the United States would partner with Pakistan to develop its so-called "massive oil reserves." This claim came immediately after he announced a 25% import duty and penalty on Indian products, adding a layer of controversy and confusion. The question that has emerged is: where exactly are these oil reserves in Pakistan that Trump is referring to, and how credible is this assertion? For many observers, it seems that Pakistan has once again managed to sell an illusion—this time an illusion of untapped oil wealth—to a leader known for his willingness to believe flattering narratives.
Historically, Pakistan has not been known for possessing large oil reserves. In fact, the country has frequently been in the news not because of its oil discoveries but due to recurring hikes in fuel prices and the illegal smuggling of oil from neighboring Iran. For instance, in July, fuel prices in Pakistan rose sharply, sparking public outrage. Citizens questioned the rationale behind paying 272 Pakistani rupees per litre for petrol, especially when global crude oil prices were on the decline. This contradiction further highlights the implausibility of the claim that Pakistan holds massive oil deposits.
The origin of this "massive oil reserve" tale can be traced back to former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who in 2019 announced the possibility of a significant oil and gas discovery off the coast of Pakistan. He even suggested that it could be one of Asia’s largest. However, these claims were quickly discredited when the Petroleum Division publicly denied any such find, stating that the drilling efforts, which extended over 5,500 meters, had failed to produce any oil or gas. Major players like ExxonMobil, ENI, Pakistan Petroleum Limited, and the Oil & Gas Development Company Limited had invested in the drilling project, only for it to be ultimately abandoned due to the lack of results.
In terms of proven reserves, Pakistan only holds around 353.5 million barrels of oil, according to estimates from 2016. This accounts for just 0.021% of the world’s oil reserves, placing the country far behind many others in terms of petroleum wealth. In stark contrast, India, which is not only the world’s third-largest consumer of crude oil but also holds approximately 4.9 billion barrels in proven reserves, commands a more significant position in the global oil landscape. India’s reserves amount to about 0.29% of the global total—many times more than Pakistan’s.
Pakistan’s limited oil reserves are not just small in quantity but are also politically sensitive. Most of them are located in Balochistan, a region fraught with political unrest and active insurgency against the federal government. The instability in the region makes it difficult to safely or effectively tap into these resources, further diminishing the feasibility of any large-scale oil development in the country. Hence, it becomes increasingly apparent that the notion of "massive oil reserves" is not grounded in reality but in political maneuvering and public relations tactics.
The situation becomes even more farcical when considering Trump’s pattern of embracing fanciful narratives. His penchant for believing exaggerated claims when flattered or promised grand achievements is well documented. In the case of Pakistan, it seems that this tendency has been exploited to present a fictional picture of economic potential that simply doesn’t exist. This is the same Trump who once mused about Pakistan potentially exporting oil to India, a country whose actual reserves and infrastructure vastly outperform those of its western neighbor.
Adding to the irony, while Trump has lauded Pakistan’s supposed economic potential, including its ventures into cryptocurrency, the ground reality remains grim. Pakistan's economy remains heavily dependent on international aid and loans, often described as surviving on a "begging bowl." The claim that the Trump family has shown interest in Pakistan's cryptocurrency initiatives only underscores how effectively Islamabad has sold illusions to its foreign partners.
Finally, the contrast in trade volumes between the United States and South Asia’s two major players—India and Pakistan—is stark. While Pakistan’s total trade with the U.S. was just $7.3 billion in 2024, India’s trade with the U.S. stood at a staggering $129 billion. This clearly shows where America’s economic interests truly lie. However, the strategic necessity of Pakistan in U.S. geopolitical calculations, particularly concerning Afghanistan and regional stability, often overshadows its lack of economic value. In this context, Trump's statement about massive oil reserves seems more like a continuation of Pakistan's long-standing strategy of selling dreams and illusions to global powers in return for favor and attention.
