Canada is preparing for what could become a significant rise in undocumented residents by mid-2026, as an unprecedented number of work permits are set to expire under stricter immigration policies introduced by the government of Mark Carney. Indians are expected to form nearly half of those at risk of losing legal status, a development that has sparked concern among immigration experts, community groups, and local authorities.
Data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada shows the scale of the challenge ahead. Around 1.05 million work permits expired by the end of 2025, and another 9.27 lakh permits are due to lapse during 2026. These figures, compiled by Mississauga-based immigration consultant Kanwar Seirah, point to a situation Canada has never faced before in terms of the sheer volume of people potentially falling out of status within such a short time frame.
Once a work permit expires, individuals immediately lose their legal right to remain employed in the country unless they successfully transition to another visa category or obtain permanent residency. However, such pathways have narrowed considerably in recent months. The Carney administration has tightened immigration rules as part of a broader effort to cap population growth, particularly in non-permanent categories such as international students, temporary foreign workers, and asylum seekers. These changes have made it increasingly difficult for permit holders to regularise their status.
Explaining the scale of the issue, Seirah warned that the situation could become chaotic. He noted that the first quarter of 2026 alone may see close to 3.15 lakh permits expire, following more than 2.91 lakh expiries in the final quarter of 2025. According to his estimates, Canada could be home to at least two million undocumented residents by the middle of 2026, with Indians making up roughly half of that number. He described this estimate as conservative, suggesting the real figures could be even higher.
Early signs of strain are already being reported, particularly in parts of the Greater Toronto Area. Tent encampments have reportedly appeared in wooded stretches of Brampton and Caledon, reflecting the growing vulnerability of people who have lost, or are about to lose, their legal status. Brampton-based journalist Nitin Chopra has documented some of these encampments and told the Hindustan Times that there is anecdotal evidence of out-of-status Indian migrants working for cash. He also pointed to the emergence of informal operators who allegedly arrange marriages of convenience as a way for migrants to stay in the country.
The growing uncertainty has prompted mobilisation among activist groups. Organisations such as the Naujawan Support Network, which advocates for migrant and worker rights, have announced plans to hold protests in January. Their demands centre on expiring work permits, the lack of viable pathways to permanent residency, and what they describe as the government’s failure to account for the human impact of sudden policy shifts.
These risks have been amplified by sweeping policy changes announced by the Carney government. Ottawa has set strict caps on immigration intake until 2028, covering permanent residents, international students, temporary workers, and refugees. Permanent residency targets are set to drop to 3.8 lakh in 2026, while the intake of temporary foreign workers is expected to fall sharply. Student visas and refugee admissions are also being scaled back as part of the same strategy.
In September, the government announced a major overhaul of the Temporary Foreign Worker Program, with Carney arguing that Canada needed a more focused immigration approach aligned with labour market needs. He said the objective was to ease pressure on housing, infrastructure, and social services. The government has also stated its intention to reduce the proportion of non-permanent residents in Canada from about 7 per cent of the population to 5 per cent by the end of 2027.
While temporary residents whose permits expire technically have a 90-day window to apply for restoration of status, the process is far from straightforward. Restoration applications are expensive, applicants are barred from working while their cases are processed, and approvals can take several months. With expiry numbers rising rapidly and legal pathways shrinking, many fear that Canada is heading toward a large-scale undocumented population crisis.
The tightening of immigration rules marks a sharp shift from Canada’s recent past. Between 2022 and 2023, the country admitted nearly 1.2 million newcomers, including permanent residents and people on temporary permits. This surge led to the fastest population growth Canada has seen since the 1950s but also placed enormous strain on housing, healthcare, and public services.
Public unease has grown alongside these pressures. A survey by the Angus Reid Institute found that 28 per cent of Canadians are seriously considering moving out of their current province due to housing affordability issues. Another poll conducted by Ekos showed that nearly 44.5 per cent of Canadians blame high levels of immigration for the housing crisis.
Canada’s healthcare system is also under severe stress, with emergency rooms across the country operating beyond capacity because of a shortage of doctors and clinics for a rapidly growing population. These domestic pressures have played a major role in shaping the government’s tougher stance.
External factors have also influenced policy decisions. Calls from the United States under President Donald Trump to curb immigration and address trade imbalances through measures such as high tariffs have added to the economic and political calculus. Together, these internal and external dynamics have pushed the Carney administration toward a more restrictive immigration framework, even as concerns mount about the long-term social consequences of creating a large undocumented population.
