The intensifying anti-government protests in Iran, in which more than 500 people have reportedly been killed, have sparked serious concern in neighbouring Pakistan, particularly as unrest reaches Iran’s eastern Sistan-Baluchestan province. Islamabad fears that the turmoil could spill over into Pakistan’s own restive Balochistan region, even as unverified reports circulate on social media about a possible presence of American troops in Pakistan linked to a potential operation against Iran.
The protests, which have spread across Iran and entered their third week, are directed against Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. While Pakistan officially described the unrest as Iran’s internal matter on Monday, security and diplomatic circles in Islamabad are closely monitoring developments. Their concern is heightened by statements from the United States indicating that it is weighing options, including possible strikes, against Tehran.
Pakistan shares a long and sensitive border of more than 900 kilometres with Iran, much of it running through the Balochistan region. This area mirrors Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan province in terms of ethnicity, with both forming parts of the larger Baloch region that extends into Afghanistan. The border has long been volatile, with decades of insurgency led by Baloch separatist groups that have posed persistent security challenges for Pakistan. Any instability in eastern Iran, analysts warn, could embolden cross-border Baloch movements and aggravate unrest on the Pakistani side.
These anxieties are not new. During last year’s Israel-Iran conflict, Pakistani security agencies had already expressed fears that turbulence in Iran could energise Baloch liberation movements across the border. Islamabad was particularly worried that a weakened Iranian state might struggle to contain militant activity, creating opportunities for armed groups to regroup, move freely, or establish new support networks.
Pakistan has acknowledged that the current protests in Iran are largely driven by economic pressures such as inflation, unemployment, and the rising cost of living—factors that have repeatedly triggered unrest in the country over the past three decades. However, reports in Pakistan’s media, including The Express Tribune, suggest there is growing concern within the country’s security establishment that Iranian dissidents based abroad may be trying to amplify and steer the protests in a specific political direction.
A Pakistani government official was quoted as saying that while Islamabad considers the unrest Iran’s internal affair, it is following the situation very closely and has no interest in seeing chaos unfold in a neighbouring country. This cautious stance was echoed by Pakistan’s Foreign Office, which issued a travel advisory urging Pakistani nationals in Iran to strictly follow official guidance and remain alert to changing conditions.
Despite the scale of the unrest and the mounting death toll, some analysts have urged restraint in predicting dramatic political outcomes. Iran-based international affairs expert Muhammad Hussain Bakari told The Express Tribune that Iran has experienced several protest movements over the past three decades without regime change, and there is no clear sign yet that the current wave will be different. He noted that while most protesters are peaceful citizens voicing economic grievances, a smaller proportion are armed and appear to be backed by external actors, which has hardened the Iranian state’s response.
Analysts have also warned that prolonged instability in Iran could disrupt cross-border trade, which is vital for local economies in Pakistan’s Balochistan. Increased unrest could strengthen smuggling networks for fuel and goods, strain already fragile border management, and potentially trigger refugee flows if civilians flee violence. All of these developments would carry direct economic and security consequences for Pakistan, which is itself struggling with inflation, debt, and internal security threats from Baloch militants and the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan.
The situation could further complicate Pakistan’s relations with the United States. Over the weekend, Pakistan and the US began joint counterterrorism military exercises at the National Counter Terrorism Centre in Punjab. Against this backdrop, claims made by a verified social media account that US Special Forces have arrived in Pakistan in preparation for a possible conflict with Iran have generated significant online speculation, though these reports remain unverified.
If such claims were to prove true, Pakistan could find itself in a delicate diplomatic position, balancing its desire to improve ties with Washington while avoiding actions that could inflame tensions with Tehran. Pakistani officials have stressed that their priority remains stability in Iran rather than any change to its political order. As one diplomat told The Express Tribune, chaos in the region has a tendency to spill across borders, and Pakistan can ill afford the consequences of such instability at this time.
