A shift in India–Bangladesh relations appears increasingly likely after Bangladesh’s parliamentary elections delivered a decisive mandate to the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), led by Tarique Rahman, signalling a potential reset following more than 18 months of strained diplomatic engagement between New Delhi and Dhaka.
Strategic affairs experts and former Indian diplomats have interpreted the outcome as a reflection of public support for democratic and pro-Liberation political forces within Bangladesh. With the BNP projected to cross the majority mark in the 300-member Parliament, observers believe the result indicates a popular demand for political stability after a prolonged phase of unrest that followed the fall of Sheikh Hasina in August 2024 amid student-led protests and nationwide turbulence.
Former Indian foreign secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla, who previously served as India’s High Commissioner to Bangladesh, described the electoral outcome as encouraging for both countries. He said the verdict reflected the aspirations of Bangladeshi citizens and reaffirmed support for political traditions rooted in the 1971 Liberation War — a defining historical moment closely tied to India-Bangladesh relations. According to him, the BNP’s return to power after nearly two decades could help restore constructive bilateral engagement, especially as Rahman has issued statements emphasising cooperation with India and assurances regarding minority protection.
The election, held on February 12, carried heightened importance because it took place after a period marked by political instability, security concerns, and reported attacks on minority communities. Indian officials have repeatedly raised concerns over minority safety with Bangladeshi authorities, making the issue a key factor shaping New Delhi’s expectations from the incoming government.
Despite optimism surrounding the BNP’s victory, analysts have cautioned that challenges remain. The electoral performance of Jamaat-e-Islami, which reportedly secured or led in dozens of constituencies, has raised concerns among observers about the continuing influence of hardline political forces. Experts argue that the consolidation of secular and pro-Liberation political groups will be critical to preserving Bangladesh’s founding constitutional ideals and preventing communal polarisation.
Former Indian High Commissioner Veena Sikri interpreted the results as a reaffirmation of democratic values among Bangladeshi voters, suggesting that the electorate had favoured political moderation despite ongoing tensions. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Tarique Rahman on his victory and expressed readiness to work with the new leadership to strengthen cooperation and advance shared development goals.
With Rahman expected to replace the interim administration led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, policymakers on both sides now view the transition as an opportunity to stabilise bilateral ties, deepen economic cooperation, and address longstanding security and minority-protection concerns while navigating Bangladesh’s evolving political landscape.
