As India continues to await a stronger revival of the southwest monsoon, an unusual rainfall pattern has emerged across the country. Rajasthan, typically India’s driest region and part of the Thar Desert, has recorded above-normal rainfall in several areas during June, while Maharashtra, which usually receives heavy monsoon showers, is facing a noticeable rainfall deficit.
Meteorologists say this contrast is linked to a disruption in the monsoon’s normal behaviour. Under usual conditions, the southwest monsoon moves steadily from the Arabian Sea towards India’s west coast, bringing heavy rain to states like Kerala, Karnataka, Goa and Maharashtra before spreading inland. Rajasthan generally receives significant rainfall later in the season. This year, however, the monsoon has been irregular, with rainfall activity shifting away from its typical pattern.
Experts point to the influence of repeated western disturbances as one of the key reasons behind the anomaly. These weather systems, which normally affect north India during winter, have continued to interact with monsoon moisture into June. Their interaction with Arabian Sea moisture has triggered thunderstorms over Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana, leading to higher-than-usual rainfall in those regions.
At the same time, the Arabian Sea branch of the monsoon has remained weak. The winds that usually carry moisture towards India’s west coast, including the Somali Jet, have not strengthened as expected this season. This has limited cloud formation over Maharashtra and reduced rainfall in the region. Satellite observations have also shown a lack of sustained cloud bands along the western coast, further contributing to the deficit.
Another contributing factor is the northward shift of the monsoon trough, a key low-pressure belt that guides rainfall across the country. When this trough moves north, rainfall activity also shifts towards the Himalayan foothills and northwest India, leaving central and western parts of the country drier than usual. This year, such shifts have repeatedly favoured Rajasthan and neighbouring states over Maharashtra and central India.
Meteorologists also note that dry air intrusion into central India has further weakened rainfall formation. Dry air in the mid-level atmosphere suppresses cloud growth even when surface moisture is present, reducing the intensity and spread of rain-bearing systems over Maharashtra and adjoining regions.
The impact of this uneven rainfall is being felt across agriculture and water management. Maharashtra, a major producer of crops like sugarcane, soybean and cotton, is facing concerns over delayed sowing and reduced soil moisture, while urban centres such as Mumbai are closely monitoring water availability after a slow start to the season. In contrast, Rajasthan’s excess rainfall has raised concerns about localised flooding and strain on drainage systems in arid areas.
While experts caution against linking a single season directly to climate change, they note that India’s rainfall patterns have become increasingly erratic in recent years, with more frequent extremes and uneven distribution. The current contrast between a wet Rajasthan and a dry Maharashtra is being viewed as part of a broader pattern of growing monsoon unpredictability.
