On Sunday, June 28, India is expected to witness sharply contrasting weather conditions across different regions, with the east and the northwest experiencing completely opposite extremes.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast extremely heavy rainfall over Assam and Meghalaya, with rainfall potentially exceeding 204.4 mm in 24 hours. This represents the highest category on the IMD’s rainfall scale.
The heavy downpour is driven by moist winds from the Bay of Bengal that are forced upward when they hit the hills of Meghalaya. This process, known as orographic lifting, causes the air to cool and release moisture as intense rainfall. Similar wet conditions are also expected in parts of Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim during this period.
At the same time, large parts of Uttar Pradesh are expected to remain under heat wave to severe heat wave conditions. Temperatures are likely to stay above 40°C and significantly higher than normal levels for this time of year.
The primary reason for this contrast is the delayed arrival of the monsoon in northern plains. Until the monsoon winds reach the region, dry and hot air continues to dominate, leading to persistent heat.
A key feature shaping the country’s weather is the monsoon trough, a low-pressure belt stretching roughly from Punjab to Bihar. This trough acts as a channel that draws in moisture-laden winds from surrounding seas, concentrating rainfall along certain regions while leaving others dry.
Along this trough, multiple cyclonic circulations are also active over parts of Telangana, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, and the Bay of Bengal, further influencing rainfall patterns. In addition, a Western Disturbance over Haryana is contributing to weather activity in northern India.
Delhi, located between these contrasting systems, is expected to see partly cloudy skies with the possibility of a thundery spell in the afternoon along with gusty winds reaching around 40 km/h. Temperatures in the capital are expected to remain in the range of 39°C to 41°C.
Overall, the weather pattern reflects a broader seasonal transition, where some parts of India are already under active monsoon influence while others continue to experience pre-monsoon heat conditions.
