The monsoon has a way of reminding the country who is in control, and Monday, July 27, is expected to be one such day—though the impact will vary sharply across regions.
A weather system that strengthened over the weekend in the Bay of Bengal has now intensified into a depression. Located near 20.6°N and 88.4°E, around 130 km southeast of Sagar Island, the system is expected to deepen further into a deep depression before making landfall between Paradip and Sagar Island around Monday forenoon or noon, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The intensity of the system is already evident. In the 24 hours leading up to Monday, Odisha's Jagatsinghpur recorded 33 cm of rainfall, highlighting the scale of rain expected as the system moves inland.
WHY SOME STATES WILL SEE HEAVY RAIN WHILE OTHERS REMAIN DRY
Three weather systems are expected to work together on Monday, determining which parts of the country receive heavy rainfall.
The monsoon trough, a broad low-pressure belt stretching from the Thar Desert to the Bay of Bengal, will remain south of its normal position. This alignment favours widespread rainfall over eastern and central India instead of the northern plains.
According to the IMD's 24-hour flash flood guidance, several districts in Odisha and Chhattisgarh, along with parts of Assam, face a moderate risk of flash floods as the depression moves inland.
An east-west shear zone near 23°N will also influence the weather. This zone, where winds at different atmospheric levels move in opposite directions, forces air to rise, encouraging thunderstorm activity. It will connect the Bay of Bengal depression with another weaker low-pressure area over west Rajasthan.
Although the western low-pressure system is comparatively weak, it will continue drawing moisture from the Arabian Sea, keeping Gujarat under persistent rain-bearing conditions. Areas outside the influence of the trough and shear zone are expected to receive relatively little rainfall.
REGIONS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
Odisha is likely to remain the worst-affected state, with the IMD forecasting heavy to very heavy rainfall and isolated extremely heavy showers throughout Monday. The state also faces a significant threat of flash floods and waterlogging in low-lying areas.
The IMD has identified districts including Anugul, Balangir, Cuttack, Jagatsinghpur, Khordha and Puri in Odisha, along with Baloda Bazar, Dhamtari, Korba, Mahasamund and Raipur in Chhattisgarh, as facing a moderate flash flood risk.
Gangetic West Bengal is also expected to receive heavy to very heavy rainfall, while parts of Chhattisgarh could witness extremely heavy downpours as the system advances inland.
In western India, Gujarat, Saurashtra and Kutch, Konkan, Goa and Madhya Maharashtra are forecast to receive widespread rainfall with isolated very heavy spells, supported by a steady inflow of moisture from the Arabian Sea.
AREAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY
Delhi-NCR is likely to experience mostly cloudy skies with light rain during the morning and again overnight. Winds are expected to range between 20 and 30 kmph, while daytime temperatures will remain in the mid-30s Celsius, far less severe than conditions in eastern India.
Punjab, Haryana and west Rajasthan are forecast to receive only isolated to scattered showers.
In the Himalayan region, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Jammu and Kashmir are expected to continue receiving widespread rainfall. The hilly terrain increases the likelihood of landslides and flash floods as moist air rises along mountain slopes.
In southern India, Kerala and coastal Karnataka are likely to remain wet with widespread rainfall. Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam may experience thundersqualls with wind speeds reaching up to 70 kmph. Interior Karnataka and Tamil Nadu are expected to receive only scattered rainfall.
COASTAL WARNING
The IMD has issued a strong warning for the north Bay of Bengal, forecasting squally winds of 55–65 kmph, gusting up to 75 kmph, from Monday morning through Tuesday.
Sea conditions are expected to remain rough to very rough along the Odisha, West Bengal and north Andhra Pradesh coasts. Fishermen have been advised not to venture into the northwest Bay of Bengal until July 29.
