Large parts of India have entered an unusually dry phase despite being in the middle of the southwest monsoon season.
Satellite imagery captured on Saturday, July 11, showed that nearly 70–80% of the country was experiencing little to no cloud cover, with many regions receiving minimal or no rainfall.
The lull is particularly striking because it comes only days after the southwest monsoon completed its advance across the entire country.
Following a period of intense rainfall that caused widespread flooding and disruptions in several major cities, the sudden break in monsoon activity has prompted questions about what is weakening India's primary rainy season.
What Is Weakening the Monsoon?
The southwest monsoon relies on moisture-laden winds from the Indian Ocean and a low-pressure system known as the monsoon trough to deliver widespread rainfall across India.
At present, however, a strong tropical cyclone over the western Pacific Ocean is drawing moisture and atmospheric circulation away from the Indian subcontinent.
As a result, the monsoon trough has weakened, leading to a sharp decline in rainfall across large parts of the country.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has also forecast subdued rainfall activity over much of central and peninsular India over the next few days. According to the weather agency, widespread rainfall is expected to resume only after atmospheric conditions become favourable again.
An Uneven Monsoon Season
The southwest monsoon covered the entire country on July 9, just one day later than its normal schedule. However, the season has so far been marked by significant fluctuations.
By the end of June, India had recorded a rainfall deficit of nearly 40%, making it one of the weakest starts to the monsoon in recent years.
Heavy rainfall during the final days of June and the first week of July helped reduce the nationwide shortfall to around 14%.
Even so, rainfall distribution has remained highly uneven across the country.
While several regions in western and eastern India have received adequate rainfall, many central states continue to report substantial rainfall deficits.
What to Expect Next?
The IMD expects rainfall during the remainder of July to remain below the long-period average, with total monthly rainfall likely to stay below 94% of normal.
Meteorologists are also closely monitoring the development of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Niño is known to influence global weather patterns and often weakens the Indian monsoon during the latter part of the season.
In addition, many regions across the country are likely to experience above-normal daytime temperatures until the next active phase of the monsoon sets in.
For now, the southwest monsoon has not withdrawn but has entered a temporary weak phase. Its recovery in the coming weeks will largely depend on how quickly weather systems over the Pacific weaken and the monsoon circulation over the Indian subcontinent regains strength.
