Just three weeks after signing a memorandum of understanding in France aimed at ending the conflict with Iran, US President Donald Trump declared on Wednesday that the agreement was effectively dead.
Referring to the Iranians as "scum", "liars" and "sick people", Trump said, "We can play games, but I'm not sure I want to make a deal." His remarks came as the US carried out a second consecutive night of strikes on Iran after Tehran targeted several oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. Iran has also launched attacks on US military bases in the Gulf in retaliation.
Few observers were surprised by the rapid collapse of the agreement.
The 14-point memorandum failed to resolve the core issues that led the US and Israel to launch military action against Iran. Decisions regarding Iran's nuclear programme were postponed for future negotiations, while the issue of its ballistic missile programme was left unaddressed. Even the question of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz received only a broad commitment, stating that commercial vessels would be allowed safe passage free of charge for 60 days. At the same time, the agreement granted Iran several concessions, including the immediate resumption of oil exports and, for the first time, recognition of Tehran's influence in Lebanon by linking the deal to Israel halting military operations against Hezbollah.
The agreement drew sharp criticism within the United States, where opponents described it as a surrender and America's greatest humiliation since the Vietnam War. Nevertheless, Trump presented it as a diplomatic success, declaring two weeks earlier, "For the first time in 3,000 years, we are going to have peace in the Middle East."
In 2020, Trump had written on social media that "Iran has never won a war, but never lost a negotiation." While opinions may differ on whether Iran has emerged victorious in the conflict, recent developments suggest that Trump has failed to achieve either a military or diplomatic success.
A more confident Iran
According to this assessment, Trump and his advisers underestimated how the conflict would reshape Iran. Rather than weakening the country, the war strengthened nationalist sentiment and reinforced confidence within the Iranian leadership. Trump's threats, which once carried significant weight, now appear to have limited influence.
Before the February 28 attack, Iran was grappling with anti-government protests, a struggling economy and a military weakened by earlier setbacks. Its regional allies had also suffered significant losses following Israeli military operations backed by the United States.
Despite these challenges, Iran endured more than 23,000 airstrikes by the US and Israel, survived the killing of several senior leaders and expanded the conflict into the Persian Gulf. It launched attacks on 16 US military bases, reportedly causing significant damage and disrupting operations at several facilities. Israel also suffered heavier losses than anticipated.
Iran also resorted to one of its most powerful strategic tools by restricting movement through the Strait of Hormuz, a route that carries roughly one-fifth of the world's energy supplies. The disruption triggered major concerns across global energy markets.
In late April, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly acknowledged that the Strait had become Iran's "economic nuclear weapon." Analysts had long warned that Tehran could use the waterway as leverage in any future conflict, but those warnings were largely ignored before the war. Iran now appears unlikely to abandon what it increasingly views as both a strategic and economic asset.
A prepared strategy
Unlike what critics describe as the inconsistent approach taken by the Trump administration, Iran is portrayed as having entered the conflict with a carefully prepared strategy.
Following its previous 12-day war, Iran reportedly anticipated another confrontation and took steps to prepare. Expecting its senior leadership to be targeted, it decentralised decision-making by granting greater authority to local commanders. It also accelerated missile and drone production to replenish military stockpiles depleted during the earlier conflict.
Plans to expand hostilities into the Gulf region and use the Strait of Hormuz as leverage were also reportedly developed in advance.
The succession process following the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was similarly swift. His son, Mojtaba Khamenei, was quickly selected as the next Supreme Leader. Unlike his father, however, many key decisions are now reportedly made by experienced commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in consultation with him. Many senior political leaders also have IRGC backgrounds, giving the leadership both military experience and a pragmatic understanding of Iran's strengths and vulnerabilities.
Rising nationalism
The deaths of senior leaders and civilians during the conflict intensified nationalist sentiment across Iran, strengthening support for the country's leadership.
The funeral of Ayatollah Khamenei, deliberately timed to coincide with the United States' 250th anniversary celebrations, became a major display of national unity. Large crowds gathered while chanting slogans against Trump and the United States.
The surge in nationalism has significantly reduced the likelihood of renewed anti-government protests, although public dissatisfaction with economic conditions remains.
Even many previous critics of the Iranian government have backed its position towards the US and Israel. Trump's continued threats and the prospect of additional military strikes appear to have reinforced these nationalist feelings. During the funeral, crowds welcomed President Masoud Pezeshkian with slogans such as "death to the normalisers" and "death to the traitors."
Risks ahead
At the same time, Iran risks overextending its strategy by repeatedly using the Strait of Hormuz as a geopolitical weapon.
Alternative export routes are already reducing dependence on the waterway. Saudi Arabia has increased crude exports through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, originally built during the Iran-Iraq War. The United Arab Emirates also exports oil through a pipeline connecting Abu Dhabi with Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman. Discussions are underway to expand similar infrastructure, potentially reducing the strategic importance of the Strait over time.
Meanwhile, Trump has already authorised fresh airstrikes against Iran but appears unlikely to pursue another full-scale military campaign. There is limited public support within the United States for a broader war, with growing opposition emerging even within the Republican Party.
Trump has also suggested reimposing a blockade around the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iran is unlikely to be deterred by additional sanctions, having endured decades of economic restrictions. Instead, the more probable outcome may be a prolonged period of recurring military confrontations between Iran and the United States rather than a decisive resolution.
