Two years after being forced out of power and fleeing to India, former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is once again preparing to re-enter the political spotlight. Her planned return to Bangladesh, if it materialises, would mark a significant chapter in the country's political history, much like her return from exile in 1981.
When Hasina landed in Dhaka on May 17, 1981, after spending six years in political exile in India, she later recalled that although no family member had come to receive her, she was welcomed by the affection of millions. She had travelled back to Bangladesh on an Indian Airlines flight, beginning a political comeback that eventually reshaped the Awami League.
History appears to have brought her to a similar moment 45 years later. If Hasina returns to Bangladesh now, it would be an unprecedented move for a political leader facing the legal and political challenges that await her.
Her second exile in India began on August 5, 2024, when she was forced to leave Bangladesh after a massive protest movement reached her official residence in Dhaka. According to accounts, she had only two hours to leave and boarded a helicopter without being able to record a farewell message for the nation.
On Wednesday, marking two years since leaving office, Hasina was scheduled to make her first public appearance through a virtual address from New Delhi. Although Bangladeshi authorities prohibited local media from broadcasting the speech, the address was expected to circulate widely through social media.
During her stay in a safehouse in New Delhi, Hasina has largely stayed away from public appearances, avoiding rallies and television interviews. Most of her interactions with the media have been through email. In recent interviews, she has reiterated her intention to return to Bangladesh before the end of the year.
Her return is viewed as politically significant for the Awami League, the party founded by her father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, one of the principal leaders of Bangladesh's 1971 Liberation War. The party continues to enjoy substantial public support and is widely associated with the country's founding principles.
The assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman during the military coup of August 15, 1975, is regarded by many as a major blow to the Awami League. The party regained momentum only after Hasina returned from exile in 1981. Her departure from Bangladesh in August 2024, however, dealt another severe setback to the party.
After Hasina resigned and left the country, the Awami League was barred from participating in the general election held in February. While the ban itself affected the party, many viewed Hasina's sudden departure amid allegations related to the 2024 violence as an even greater political setback.
Supporters believe the Awami League's revival depends largely on Hasina's eventual return.
Why Hasina's return would be significant
"I may be killed. I may be arrested. I may be sent to prison," Hasina told AFP in an email interview in July.
"I am fully aware of my fate. Still, I want to go back because my people are calling me," she said.
In November 2025, Bangladesh's International Crimes Tribunal sentenced Hasina to death in absentia after convicting her over allegations of orchestrating the killing of protesters during the July-August 2024 unrest.
Hasina has consistently rejected the allegations, maintaining that the protests were manipulated by political groups after initially beginning as an anti-quota movement.
If she returns despite the death sentence, it would be an unusual step, as political leaders facing capital punishment rarely choose to return voluntarily from exile without any publicly known assurances.
At the same time, the government led by Prime Minister Tarique Rahman has indicated that it is prepared for her return.
"She says she will come. So let her come; we are ready," Tarique Rahman's adviser for information and broadcasting, Zahed Ur Rahman, was quoted as saying by Prothom Alo.
According to the adviser, Hasina would be arrested immediately upon entering Bangladesh.
Following in her father's footsteps
Hasina has previously faced imprisonment, drawing comparisons with her father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman.
In March 1971, Pakistan's military government imprisoned Mujibur Rahman and sentenced him to death for leading Bangladesh's independence movement. Following Pakistan's defeat in the Liberation War, he was released in January 1972 and returned to Bangladesh as a national hero.
Bangladesh's politics has long been shaped by competing visions of the country's identity—one rooted in the legacy of the 1947 Partition and another based on the secular ideals of the 1971 Liberation War. Sheikh Mujibur Rahman remains a central figure for supporters of the latter vision.
Following Hasina's removal from office in 2024, statues of Mujibur Rahman and his historic residence at Dhanmondi 32 were vandalised, reflecting the continued ideological divisions within Bangladesh.
While many believe it is unlikely that Hasina would ultimately face execution, concerns remain about her personal security.
Former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto survived a suicide attack upon returning from exile in 2007 before being assassinated months later. Similarly, former Philippine opposition leader Benigno Aquino Jr. was assassinated shortly after arriving home from exile in 1983.
Hasina herself has survived at least 19 assassination attempts, including the discovery of a 76-kg bomb at a rally in Gopalganj in 2000 and the 2004 grenade attack in Dhaka that killed 24 people.
What could Hasina seek upon her return?
Throughout her political career, Hasina has been regarded as a skilled strategist who successfully consolidated her leadership within the Awami League after initially being viewed as a compromise candidate.
During her tenure, particularly after returning to power in 2009, Bangladesh witnessed rapid economic growth and significant poverty reduction. However, her later years in office were also marked by allegations of corruption, suppression of dissent and human rights violations.
Her supporters argue that developments since her removal have altered public perceptions, while critics maintain that she must still answer the allegations against her.
If she returns, observers believe her immediate objective would be to restore the Awami League's political participation by securing its inclusion in future general elections.
Achieving that would likely require rebuilding public support through political campaigns, rallies and organisational mobilisation, even if those efforts have to be carried out while facing legal proceedings.
Hasina has already stated that she is prepared to surrender before a court upon her return, placing the next move in the hands of the Bangladeshi government.
When she returned to Bangladesh in 1981, then-President Ziaur Rahman did not order her arrest despite her concerns.
Now, decades later, it will be up to Ziaur Rahman's son, Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, to determine how the government responds if Hasina returns.
Like General Douglas MacArthur's famous pledge, "I shall return," after leaving the Philippines during World War II, Hasina has repeatedly declared her intention to go back to Bangladesh.
Whether that return reshapes the country's political landscape remains uncertain. What is clear is that she sees it as an opportunity to revive the Awami League and preserve the political legacy of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, despite the legal and political challenges that await her.
